瑞达期货国债期货日报-20250609

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On June 9, 2025, the yield of treasury bond spot bonds showed mixed trends, with the 5Y and 10Y maturity yields rising by 0.45 and 0.1bp respectively, while the 2Y, 7Y, and 30Y yields falling by about 0.2 - 0.6bp. Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board, with the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts rising by 0.01%, 0.01%, 0.09%, and 0.35% respectively [2]. - The negative impact of the unexpected outcome of the China - US tariff negotiations on the bond market has been largely digested, and the market has returned to being driven by the capital and fundamental aspects. Recently, the central bank conducted a 1 - trillion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation, releasing medium - term liquidity into the market and sending a signal of easing. Short - term interest rates are expected to remain low, and long - term interest rates may decline slightly, but further incremental easing signals from monetary policy are still awaited [2]. - In this period, the main contracts of treasury bond futures are expected to show a moderately strong and volatile trend. Investors are advised to maintain a certain position [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Data - Closing Prices and Volumes: The T main contract closed at 109.000, up 0.09%, with a trading volume of 60,635 (an increase of 6,372). The TF main contract closed at 106.125, unchanged, with a volume of 50,459 (an increase of 1,281). The TS main contract closed at 102.448, unchanged, with a volume of 35,286 (an increase of 410). The TL main contract closed at 120.140, up 0.35%, with a volume of 75,638 (an increase of 5,369) [2]. - Futures Spreads: For example, the TL2509 - 2506 spread was 0.75, up 0.01; the T2509 - 2506 spread was 0.20, down 0.01; etc [2]. - Futures Positions: The T main contract's open interest was 182,042, down 1,633. The net short position of the top 20 traders increased by 61. Similar data is available for TF, TS, and TL contracts [2]. 2. CTD and Active Bond Data - CTD Bonds: The net prices of some CTD bonds such as 2500802.IB (6y) and 220010.IB (6y) showed increases [2]. - Active Bonds: The yields of active treasury bonds with different maturities decreased, e.g., the 1 - year yield was 1.4100%, down 2.50bp; the 10 - year yield was 1.6525%, down 1.50bp [2]. 3. Interest Rate Data - Short - term Interest Rates: The silver - pledged overnight rate was 1.3620%, down 2.80bp; the Shibor overnight rate was 1.3780%, down 3.30bp. The 1 - year LPR was 3.00%, unchanged; the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, unchanged [2]. 4. Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation with an issuance scale of 173.8 billion yuan, a maturity scale of 0, and an interest rate of 1.4% for 7 days [2]. 5. Industry News - Price Data: In May 2025, the national CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 3.3% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month [2]. - Trade Data: In the first five months of 2025, China's total goods trade import and export value was 17.94 trillion yuan, up 2.5% year - on - year. In May, exports (in US dollars) increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 3.4% [2]. 6. Key Events to Watch - On June 10 at 14:00, the UK's May unemployment rate will be released; on June 11 at 20:30, the US's May unadjusted CPI annual rate will be released [3].