瑞达期货沪锡产业日报-20250609

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The actual resumption progress of tin mines in Myanmar is expected to be slower than market expectations, and the Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in stages, with supply expected to start being released in late June. The processing fees for tin ore were further reduced at the beginning of June. - In the smelting sector, tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan are facing a shortage of raw materials and high costs, with low raw material inventories. In Jiangxi, the scrap recycling system is under pressure, the risk of production capacity withdrawal has increased, and the operating rate remains at a low level. - On the demand side, due to the previous decline in tin prices and the reluctance of holders to sell, the purchasing sentiment of downstream and end - user enterprises has increased, leading to an obvious decline in social inventories. - Technically, the position reduction has rebounded from a low level, and attention should be paid to the resistance of MA60. Short - term investors are advised to go long with a light position [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin was 263,740 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan; the closing price of the July - August contract was 130 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan. - The price of LME 3 - month tin was 32,255 US dollars/ton, down 105 US dollars. - The position of the main contract of Shanghai tin was 25,485 lots, down 492 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures was 4,296 lots, up 104 lots. - The total inventory of LME tin was 2,440 tons, down 5 tons; the canceled warrants of LME tin were 630 tons, up 25 tons. - The inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 7,372 tons (weekly), down 735 tons; the warehouse receipts of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 6,904 tons, down 116 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 tin was 263,900 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan; the spot price of 1 tin in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market was 263,630 yuan/ton, down 760 yuan. - The basis of the main contract of Shanghai tin was 800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) was 50 US dollars/ton, up 59.1 US dollars. - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 12,100 tons (monthly), down 2,900 tons [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of 40% tin concentrate was 252,400 yuan/ton, up 6,100 yuan; the processing fee was 10,500 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan. - The average price of 60% tin concentrate was 256,400 yuan/ton, up 6,100 yuan; the processing fee was 6,500 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin was 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the import volume of refined tin was 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu was 171,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) was 1.6014 million tons (monthly), up 144,500 tons; the export volume of tin - plated sheets was 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - International: In May, the non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 139,000, exceeding the expected 130,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2% for the third consecutive month. Some Fed officials said that there may be an interest rate cut later this year, and the possibility of a continuous inflation outbreak due to the trade war is 50%. - Domestic: In May, China's CPI decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, indicating weak domestic demand. The wholesale volume of passenger cars by domestic manufacturers in May reached a record high for the month, with a year - on - year increase of 12.8% and a month - on - month increase of 5.5% [3].