合成橡胶产业日报-20250609

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cost support for butadiene rubber production has weakened due to relatively sufficient supply of raw material butadiene and weak cost - side and bearish macro - economic expectations. Traders are selling at a negative spread, with a slight increase in producers' inventory and a slight decrease in traders' inventory last week. - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises continued to decline last week. Although the output of some enterprises will gradually return to normal as they restart after maintenance, the overall order performance of tire enterprises is average, the de - stocking pace of finished products is slow, and some enterprises still have maintenance plans, which will limit the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. - The br2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,750 - 11,500 in the short term [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber was 11,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the main contract position was 22,981, a decrease of 1,899; the synthetic rubber 6 - 7 spread was - 110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125 yuan/ton; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 5,780 tons, a decrease of 170 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from different petrochemical companies (Qilu, Daqing, and Maoming) in different regions (Shandong, Shanghai, and Guangdong) was in the range of 11,500 - 11,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton; the basis of synthetic rubber was 350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 14.78 million tons, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate was 68.02%, a decrease of 1.28 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene was 27,000 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons; the daily operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 47%, an increase of 0.91 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of butadiene rubber was 12.15 million tons, a decrease of 0.68 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate was 67.25%, a decrease of 6.29 percentage points; the weekly production profit was - 882 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan/ton; the weekly social inventory was 3.4 million tons, a decrease of 0.05 million tons; the manufacturer's inventory was 28,300 tons, an increase of 200 tons; the trader's inventory was 5,680 tons, a decrease of 680 tons [2]. - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 73.86%, a decrease of 4.39 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 63.47%, a decrease of 1.33 percentage points; the monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.08 million pieces, a decrease of 610,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.39 million pieces, a decrease of 4.27 million pieces; the inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong was 41.87 days, a decrease of 0.09 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong was 45.84 days, a decrease of 0.38 days [2]. 4. Industry News - As of June 5, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 3.40 million tons, a decrease of 0.05 million tons from the previous period (May 28, 2025), a month - on - month decrease of 1.39%. - As of May 29, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.51%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.23 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.58 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.80%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.29 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 4.40 percentage points. - In May 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 5% compared with April and a year - on - year increase of about 6% compared with 78,200 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to May this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 435,500 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 1% [2].