瑞达期货沪铜产业日报-20250609

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may present a situation of sufficient supply and slightly subdued demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 78,910 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,719 dollars/ton, up 26 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 120 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 202,306 lots, down 1,812 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures traders in Shanghai copper is - 3,406 lots, down 6,378 lots. The LME copper inventory is 132,400 tons, down 5,600 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 107,404 tons, up 1,613 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants are 67,800 tons, down 10,000 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 34,242 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 copper and Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper is 78,875 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 70 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper is 40.5 dollars/ton, up 3.5 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is - 35 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is 69.84 dollars/ton, down 23.31 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 292.44 million tons, up 53.13 million tons. The copper smelter's TC is - 43.29 dollars/kiloton, up 0.27 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 69,170 yuan/metal ton, up 510 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 69,870 yuan/metal ton, up 510 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the north, it is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 125.4 million tons, up 0.6 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 427,000 tons, down 13,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 55,540 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 67,150 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 570 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 208.1 million tons, down 4.42 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 140.816 billion yuan, up 45.195 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 2772.957 billion yuan, up 782.54 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,167 million pieces, down 30,199.9 pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 10.04%, up 0.01%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 15.3%, down 0.06%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money options is 12.58%, up 0.0117%. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 0.94, up 0.1413 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Fed officials have different views on interest rates and bank regulations. The negotiation on the price commitment of the China - EU electric vehicle case is in the final stage. US employment growth slowed in May, and Trump pressured the Fed to cut interest rates. US imports decreased in April. The global manufacturing PMI in May was 49.2%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, still in the contraction range [2]. 3.8 Viewpoint Summary - Shanghai copper's main contract fluctuated strongly, with reduced open interest, spot discount, and strengthening basis. In the US, employment growth slowed, which may give the Fed room to postpone interest rate cuts. In China, infrastructure investment has been improving, but the momentum for expanding effective investment needs to be fully released. The processing fee of copper concentrates remains low, and the international supply of concentrates is tight. Although the domestic port inventory has decreased, it is still sufficient, and the import of scrap copper is expected to increase. The domestic import window has opened, and the supply is expected to increase slightly. Due to the off - season of consumption, the downstream operating rate has declined, and the spot market trading sentiment has weakened, with a slight increase in domestic inventory. The option market sentiment is gradually balanced, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the green bars are converging [2].