瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20250609

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate suggest that the supply side may see a slight reduction, while the demand side will experience a small increase but with limited growth. The market supply - demand situation remains at a high inventory level with an oversupply. The option market shows a bullish sentiment, and the technical indicators suggest a light - position short - selling strategy at high prices while controlling risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 60,700 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 30,751 lots, down 6,624 lots; the position volume of the main contract is 209,319 lots, down 9,097 lots; the spread between near and far - month contracts is - 420 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan; the warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange are 33,309 lots/ton, down 12 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 60,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 58,650 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 450 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 697 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 6,540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 1,555 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 47,900 tons, up 4,720 tons; the monthly import volume is 28,335.89 tons, up 10,210.40 tons; the monthly export volume is 734.29 tons, up 514.26 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 53%, up 3 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries is 118,200 MWh, down 100 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 28,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 52,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium cobalt oxide is 215,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China is 146,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China is 121,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 125,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 53%, up 5 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 30,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 47%, down 10 percentage points; the monthly output of new energy vehicles (according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers) is 1,251,000 vehicles, down 26,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 1,226,000 vehicles, down 11,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 42.74%, up 1.58 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles is 4,300,000 vehicles, up 1,360,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 200,000 vehicles, up 42,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles is 642,000 vehicles, up 221,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 27.68%, down 0.60 percentage points; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 22.36%, up 0.02 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The total subscription position is 251,823 lots, down 5,325 lots; the total put position is 92,679 lots, down 7,307 lots; the total position put - call ratio is 36.8%, down 2.0794 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV is 0.20%, down 0.0701 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Multiple associations jointly signed an agreement to establish the Yangtze River Delta New Energy Vehicle Export Base; the price - commitment negotiation of the China - EU electric vehicle case is in the final stage; the used - car market shows weakness; the export value of auto parts in April is 8.02 billion US dollars, down 3.7% month - on - month and up 6.3% year - on - year; BYD's overseas sales are expected to increase, and it will launch intelligent driving technologies in the next 3 - 5 years [2].