瑞达期货纯碱玻璃产业日报-20250609

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, supply pressure is gradually increasing while demand shows no significant improvement. The futures market may have short - term rebounds but faces large upward pressure. It is recommended to go short on the soda ash main contract after a rebound [2]. - For glass, the supply side has reduced production, and the industry's overall profit is poor. The demand side is affected by the weak real - estate market. The futures price has broken through the profit support. After a short - term rebound, it is advisable to go short on the glass main contract [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price is 1202 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; glass main contract closing price is 1006 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [2]. - The price difference between soda ash and glass is 196 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan; soda ash main contract position is 1,513,365 lots, up 117,554 lots; glass main contract position is 1,450,682 lots, up 28,591 lots [2]. - Soda ash's top 20 net position is - 284,020 lots, down 49,866 lots; glass's top 20 net position is - 169,254 lots, down 57,166 lots [2]. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 4,273 tons, up 791 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged [2]. - The price difference between soda ash's September and January contracts is 9 yuan, down 5 yuan; the price difference between glass's September and January contracts is - 60 yuan, down 3 yuan [2]. - Soda ash basis is 18 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; glass basis is 59 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - North China heavy soda ash is 1,230 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China heavy soda ash is 1,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - East China light soda ash is 1,340 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash is 1,285 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shahe glass sheets are 1,056 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass sheets are 1,070 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate is 80.76%, up 2.19 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate is 75.53%, down 0.15 percentage points [2]. - Glass in - production capacity is 15.68 million tons/year, up 0.05 million tons; the number of glass in - production lines is 224 [2]. - Soda ash enterprise inventory is 1.627 million tons, up 0.27 million tons; glass enterprise inventory is 69.754 million weight boxes, up 2.092 million weight boxes [2]. 下游情况 - The cumulative value of real - estate new construction area is 178.3584 million square meters, up 48.3938 million square meters; the cumulative value of real - estate completion area is 156.4785 million square meters, up 25.8758 million square meters [2]. Industry News - Hong Kong's "Stablecoin Ordinance" will take effect on August 1, 2025 [2]. - Hong Kong Chief Executive Li Jiachao will set up a HK$10 billion "Innovation and Technology Industry Guidance Fund" to promote AI development [2]. - Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo - po said that Hong Kong attracted about 20 million tourists in the first five months [2]. - The Chinese embassy responded to the issue of heavy - metal pollution in a tributary of the Mekong River in Thailand caused by Chinese enterprises' mining in Myanmar [2]. - The central bank conducted a 3 - month RMB 1 trillion repurchase operation on June 7 to release medium - and long - term liquidity [2]. - In May, the promotion of new energy vehicles dropped to a medium - high level of 11%, up 1.6 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - BYD's Li Yunfei responded to the "atmospheric pressure fuel tank" and "automobile industry Evergrande" incidents [2]. - Geely's Li Shufu said the automobile industry has serious over - capacity and Geely will not build new factories [2]