瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20250609

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Global natural rubber production areas are gradually starting the tapping season. In Yunnan, due to weather interference and the diversion of agricultural latex, raw material supply remains tight. In Hainan, although rubber forests in the western region have mostly started tapping, frequent rain disrupts tapping work, leading to a tight supply of raw materials, and local concentrated latex processing plants are still purchasing raw materials at a premium [2]. - As of June 8, 2025, the bonded inventory of the Qingdao natural rubber sample decreased by 0.13 million tons to 8.56 million tons compared to the previous period (20250601), a decline of 1.5%. The general trade inventory in Qingdao continued the destocking pattern. It is expected that the general trade inventory in Qingdao will continue to decline by about 0.5 million tons in the next period [2]. - In May 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold approximately 83,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a slight 5% decrease from April 2025 and about a 6% increase from 78,200 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to May 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 435,500 vehicles, a slight 1% year - on - year increase [2]. - The short - term forecast for the ru2509 contract is a fluctuation range of 13,300 - 14,000, and for the nr2507 contract, it is 11,750 - 12,350 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 13,725 yuan/ton, a 75 - yuan increase; the 9 - 1 spread was - 870 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan increase. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,050 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan increase; the 6 - 7 spread was - 65 yuan/ton, a 40 - yuan decrease [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 1,675 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 168,422 lots, a decrease of 3,704 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 36,290 lots, a decrease of 2,397 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 22,696 lots, an increase of 1,617 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 3,435 lots, an increase of 1,685 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 193,250 tons, a decrease of 280 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 25,905 tons, an increase of 4,032 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 13,750 yuan/ton, a 200 - yuan increase; the price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,700 US dollars/ton, a 10 - US - dollar increase. The price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 14,950 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan decrease; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,700 US dollars/ton, a 10 - US - dollar increase [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 13,600 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan increase; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 13,520 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan increase. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,800 yuan/ton, a 200 - yuan increase; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,600 yuan/ton, a 200 - yuan increase [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was 100 yuan/ton, a 95 - yuan increase; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 50 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan decrease. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,073 yuan/ton, a 148 - yuan decrease; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 48 yuan/ton, a 208 - yuan decrease [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 65.9 Thai baht/kg, a 0.79 - Thai - baht increase; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 62.26 Thai baht/kg, a 0.37 - Thai - baht increase. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 56 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) was 44.9 Thai baht/kg, a 0.2 - Thai - baht increase [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 89.2 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 118.8 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 1 US dollar/ton, an increase of 4 US dollars/ton. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 186,800 tons, a decrease of 29,300 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 248,700 tons, a decrease of 32,900 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 63.47%, a decrease of 1.33 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.86%, a decrease of 4.39 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 41.87 days, a decrease of 0.09 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 45.84 days, a decrease of 0.38 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.08 million pieces, a decrease of 610,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.39 million pieces, a decrease of 4.27 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 27.43%, a 0.18 - percentage - point increase; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 26.8%, a 1.78 - percentage - point decrease. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.2%, a 0.82 - percentage - point decrease; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.2%, a 0.81 - percentage - point decrease [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In the first week of June 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared to the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, heavy rainfall was mainly concentrated in southern Myanmar, western Thailand, and southwestern Cambodia, increasing the impact on tapping work. In the southern hemisphere, heavy rainfall was mainly in sporadic areas in southeastern Indonesia, and the rainfall in most other areas was at a medium - low level, also increasing the impact on tapping work [2]. - As of June 8, 2025, the bonded inventory of the Qingdao natural rubber sample decreased by 0.13 million tons to 8.56 million tons compared to the previous period (20250601), a decline of 1.5%. The general trade inventory in Qingdao continued the destocking pattern. The inbound rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.11 percentage points. It is expected that the general trade inventory in Qingdao will continue to decline by about 0.5 million tons in the next period [2].