纯碱、玻璃日报-20250610

Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Date: June 10, 2024 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] - Industry: Soda Ash and Glass [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The soda ash market shows a pattern of rising supply, falling demand, and inventory accumulation, with a long - term surplus situation that suppresses prices. In the future, it will mainly oscillate at a low level [8]. - The glass market is affected by seasonal factors, high - level intermediate inventory, slow capacity reduction, and the weak real - estate market. The short - term outlook is for the main contract to oscillate at a low level [9][10] Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - Daily Market: On June 9, the main soda ash futures contract SA509 oscillated and recovered. The closing price was 1,202 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.90%, with a daily increase in positions of 117,554 lots [7]. - Fundamentals: In the week of June 5, China's weekly soda ash production rose to 704,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.78%. The weekly capacity utilization rate dropped to 80.76%, a month - on - month increase of 2.19%. As of June 5, the soda ash enterprise shipments were 701,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.90%. The weekly enterprise factory inventory remained at 1.627 million tons, with continued slight inventory accumulation [8]. - Outlook: In the medium - and short - term, production is likely to continue to rise, supply will increase, and inventory may further accumulate. Demand is expected to be weak, and the long - term pattern is one of surplus. Affected by the weak real - estate market, the demand for architectural glass is weak, and the soda ash futures price lacks the impetus for continuous rise. In the future, supply - demand contradictions are prominent, and it will mainly oscillate at a low level [8] Glass - Daily Market: Not specifically described in terms of daily price changes, but focused on the future outlook [9] - Outlook: The demand side of glass is significantly affected by seasonal factors. During the current traditional rainy season, construction activities are restricted, and terminal demand continues to weaken. The high - level intermediate inventory is the main resistance to price increases, and the slow capacity reduction process leads to the pressure of further inventory accumulation. The domestic real - estate completion stage has not improved substantially, and the downward trend continues. Although there are expectations for incremental policies, they are difficult to fundamentally reverse the supply - demand imbalance. It is expected that the main glass futures contract will maintain a low - level oscillation in the short term [9][10] 2. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of active soda ash and glass contracts, weekly soda ash production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass production, with data sources including Wind and Zhuochuang Information [12][17][18]