建信期货油脂日报-20250610

Report Overview - Report Date: June 10, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Product Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Core Viewpoints - The oil and fat sector was boosted by external crude oil and US soybeans, showing a volatile and upward trend during the day [7]. - Palm oil maintained a volatile adjustment trend. Active domestic purchases and expected slow growth in port inventories suppressed the market performance. The market was waiting for the MPOB supply - demand report on Tuesday [7]. - The market expected Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of May to increase significantly, exceeding 2 million tons for the first time this year [7]. - For rapeseed oil, although China and Canada restarted negotiations, there were few rapeseed purchases after June - July. The domestic spot and basis were strong, and the 9000 level had strong short - term support [7]. - Brazil's abundant soybean supply continued to pressure the market. Attention should be paid to recent soybean imports and crushing. An improved supply situation might bring pressure to soybean - based oils and fats [7]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Quotes: Dongguan rapeseed oil traders' quotes: Dongguan triple - pressed rapeseed oil 09 + 50 (June), first - pressed rapeseed oil 09 + 250 (June). East China market soybean oil basis prices: first - grade soybean oil, early June 09 + 280, June - July 09 + 260, June - September 09 + 270, October - January 01 + 330. East China 24 - degree palm oil: P09 + 450 yuan/ton [7]. - Market Analysis: The oil and fat sector was affected by external factors. Palm oil was affected by domestic purchases and inventory expectations. Rapeseed oil was influenced by purchase volume and domestic spot conditions. Soybean - based oils and fats were under pressure from Brazilian supply [7]. 2. Industry News - Palm Oil Production: According to SPPOMA data, Malaysia's palm oil production in May increased by 3.53% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield increasing by 1.9% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) increasing by 0.3% month - on - month [8]. - Palm Oil Exports: Different shipping survey agencies released data on Malaysia's palm oil exports in May. SGS data showed an increase of 29.6% compared to April, ITS showed a 17.9% increase, and AmSpec showed a 13.2% increase. Exports to China increased by 62,700 tons compared to the previous month [8]. 3. Data Overview - Price and Basis Charts: The report presented charts of spot prices and basis changes of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, fourth - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, as well as palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil basis changes [10][12][15]. - Spread and Exchange Rate Charts: There were charts of palm oil spreads (P1 - 5, P5 - 9, P9 - 1) and exchange rates (USD/CNY, USD/MYR) [21][26][27]