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建信期货聚烯烃日报-20250610
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-06-10 02:29

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Linear futures opened lower and fluctuated, closing higher at the end of the session. PP fluctuated within a range. The spot market had a cautious trading atmosphere, with some factory prices adjusted and low terminal restocking willingness. The supply - side pressure will increase due to the decline in planned maintenance after June and new capacity expansion plans, while demand is pressured by seasonal weakness and tariff transmission. Although the cost side is supported by the US fuel consumption peak season, the rebound space of polyolefins is limited due to existing supply - demand contradictions [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Linear futures (L09) closed at 7078 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.08%), with a trading volume of 25 lots and an increase in open interest by 1429 to 545370 lots. PP closed at 6932 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan (0.09%), with open interest decreasing by 1541 to 516,300 lots. The spot market was cautious, with some factory prices adjusted and low terminal restocking enthusiasm. The supply - side pressure will increase after June due to reduced planned maintenance and new capacity expansion, and demand is affected by seasonality and tariffs. The cost side has some support, but the rebound space of polyolefins is limited [5][6] 3.2 Industry News - On June 9, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 870,000 tons, a 40,000 - ton increase (4.82%) from the previous working day, compared with 855,000 tons in the same period last year. PP market prices were generally stable with minor fluctuations, and PE market prices showed mixed trends in different regions [7] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [9][14][16]