摩根士丹利：中国思考-中国如何打出稀土牌

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the rare earth industry but emphasizes China's strategic leverage over the supply chain as a significant factor in trade negotiations [1][3]. Core Insights - China's control over rare earth supply is a calibrated tool for strategic influence, with a near-monopoly in the supply chain, making rare earths a significant bargaining chip in trade negotiations [1][3]. - Recent changes in China's export controls on rare earth elements, particularly on seven heavier elements, indicate a shift towards using rare earths as a strategic lever amid rising trade tensions and technology restrictions [2][4]. - The report highlights that China currently controls over 85% of global rare earth refining and 90% of NdFeB magnet production, which are critical for various advanced technologies [12]. Summary by Sections Export Controls and Strategic Leverage - China has imposed export controls on seven heavier rare earth elements and their processed products since April 2025, which are essential for modern manufacturing processes [2][4]. - The tightening of export licenses allows Beijing to regulate the volume, destination, and end-use of rare earth materials, enhancing its ability to exert targeted influence [11]. - An export tracking system is being developed to strengthen oversight of finished magnet exports, indicating a systematic approach to control [11]. Market Share and Production Capacity - China holds a dominant market share across the rare earth supply chain, with significant control over mining, refining, and magnet production [7][12]. - The report notes that while mining capacity can be expanded relatively easily, refining and magnet production face technological and environmental challenges, making them harder to replace [14][15][16]. Geopolitical Implications - The current rare earth controls are seen as a mechanism for testing strategic responses to tech restrictions imposed by the US and its allies, aiming to reshape global tech and trade dynamics [13]. - The report suggests that China's actions may lead to reciprocal escalations in trade policies, particularly in response to restrictions on technology exports from the US [13]. Recent Developments - Since the implementation of export controls, several magnet producers have received export permits, indicating a gradual resumption of exports to key markets [17][18]. - The report highlights that while magnets are subject to export controls, motors containing them are not, allowing for alternative production strategies [19].