摩根士丹利：关键预测

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight (OW) rating on US stocks, Treasuries, and US Investment Grade Corporate Credit, while recommending a focus on quality assets [4][5][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a global growth slowdown due to the imposition of tariffs by the US, which is expected to impact demand and supply dynamics across various regions [2][8]. - Despite the anticipated slowdown, the report does not foresee a global recession, citing a strong starting point for growth entering the year [2]. - The US GDP growth is projected to decline from 2.5% in 2024 to 1.0% in both 2025 and 2026, with global growth expected to decrease from 3.5% to 2.5% in the same period [2][9]. Economic Outlook - The report anticipates a step-down in global growth, with specific forecasts indicating a 2.5% growth rate for 2025 and 2.8% for 2026 [9]. - Inflation rates are projected to be 2.1% for global inflation in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026, with the US expected to see inflation rates of 3.0% and 2.5% respectively [9]. Sector Recommendations - In the US, the report favors quality cyclicals, large caps, and defensives with lower leverage and cheaper valuations [6]. - For Japan, the focus is on domestic reflation and corporate reform beneficiaries, as well as companies involved in defense and economic security spending [6]. - In Europe, the report suggests repositioning into resilient sectors such as defense, banks, software, telecoms, and diversified financials [6]. - Emerging Markets (EM) recommendations are skewed towards financials and domestic-focused businesses over exporters and semiconductors/hardware [6]. Equity Valuations - The report provides specific price targets and earnings per share (EPS) estimates for major indices, including S&P 500 at 6,000 with a target of 6,500, and MSCI EM at 1,183 with a target of 1,200 [7]. - The expected EPS growth for S&P 500 is +7% for 2025 and +9% for 2026, while MSCI EM is projected to grow by +6% in 2025 and +10% in 2026 [7]. Currency and Interest Rate Forecasts - The report predicts a depreciation of the USD, with the DXY expected to fall by 9% to 91 by mid-2026 due to converging US rates and growth with global peers [14]. - US Treasury yields are expected to remain range-bound until late 2025, with significant rate cuts anticipated in 2026 [14][21]. Commodity Insights - Oil prices are expected to face downward pressure due to potential supply increases, with Brent prices projected to drop into the mid-$50s by 1H26 [16]. - Gold is highlighted as a top pick due to strong central bank demand and safe-haven appeal amid growth concerns [18].