Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of glass are weak, and it is expected to mainly trade in a low - level range in the short term. The supply has declined to a relatively low level for the same period, the seasonal off - season has arrived, downstream demand is based on procurement needs, and glass factory inventories are continuously accumulating [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract is 1006 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.90%. The spot price of Shahe Safe large - size glass remains unchanged at 1060 yuan/ton. The main basis is 54 yuan/ton, down 14.29% [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - size boards in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe is 1060 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side - The profitability of coal production lines has recovered, the losses of natural gas production lines have narrowed, and the profits of petroleum coke production lines have turned negative [17]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating float glass production lines in China is 224, with an operating rate of 75.53%. The number of operating production lines and daily melting capacity are at historical lows for the same period [21][23]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In April 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 468.08 tons. The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period, and the funds recovery in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic [27][4]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of float glass enterprises in China is 69.754 million weight boxes, an increase of 3.09% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the five - year average [42]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the production and consumption of float glass have fluctuated. In 2024E, the production is expected to be 55.10 million tons, with a growth rate of 3.94%, and the consumption is expected to be 53.10 million tons, with a decline rate of 1.15% [43]. Influencing Factors Summary - Positive factors: The negative feedback of production profit is obvious, and glass production has continuously declined to a historical low [4]. - Negative factors: The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The funds recovery in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting raw glass inventories [4]. Main Logic - The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level for the same period. With the arrival of the seasonal off - season, downstream demand is based on procurement needs, and glass factory inventories are continuously accumulating. It is expected that glass will mainly trade in a low - level range [5].
大越期货玻璃早报-20250610
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-06-10 03:02