大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250610

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - For LLDPE and PP, the market is expected to be volatile today. Cost has recent support, but new capacity and weak demand create a cost - demand game, also influenced by tariff policies [4][6] Summaries by Related Content LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: The official PMI in May was 49.5%, up 0.5 from April, while the Caixin PMI was 48.3%, down 2.1 from April. After the Sino - US tariff announcements in May, the situation eased, but the final negotiation result is uncertain. Crude oil and coal have rebounded, supporting the cost side. It's the off - season for agricultural films, most factories are shut down, and there is still pressure from new capacity. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 7170 (+10), with overall neutral fundamentals [4] - Basis: The LLDPE 2509 contract basis is 92, with a premium ratio of 1.3%, indicating a bullish signal [4] - Inventory: The PE comprehensive inventory is 57.6 tons (+3.6), considered neutral [4] - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [4] - Main Position: The LLDPE main position is net short and increasing short positions, also bearish [4] - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is volatile. With cost support, off - season demand, new capacity pressure, and high industrial inventory, the PE is expected to be volatile today [4] - Factors: Bullish factor is cost support; bearish factors are new capacity and weak demand. The main logic is the cost - demand game and tariff policies [5] PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE in terms of macro data. The current PP delivery product spot price is 7150 (+50), with overall neutral fundamentals. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and demand in sectors like pipes and plastic weaving is weak [6] - Basis: The PP 2509 contract basis is 218, with a premium ratio of 3.1%, bullish [6] - Inventory: The PP comprehensive inventory is 60.5 tons (+5.2), neutral [6] - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [6] - Main Position: The PP main position is net long but reducing long positions, still bullish [6] - Expectation: The PP main contract is volatile. With cost support, weak overall demand, and high industrial inventory, the PP is expected to be volatile today [6] - Factors: Bullish factor is cost support; bearish factor is weak demand. The main logic is the cost - demand game and tariff policies [7] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, net imports, and apparent consumption showed various trends. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to be 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13] - Polypropylene: From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, net imports, and apparent consumption also had different trends. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to be 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15] Market Data Tables - LLDPE: Includes spot prices, futures prices, and inventory data such as spot delivery product price 7170 (+10), 09 contract price 7078 (+12), and PE comprehensive factory inventory 57.6 tons [8] - PP: Includes spot prices, futures prices, and inventory data such as spot delivery product price 7150 (+50), 09 contract price 6932 (+7), and PP comprehensive factory inventory 60.5 tons [8]