大越期货天胶早报-20250610

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core View The report assesses the natural rubber market as neutral overall, with multiple factors influencing the market. The supply is increasing, foreign spot prices are strong, and domestic inventories are starting to rise. The tire operating rate is at a high level. The market is mainly driven by market sentiment, and short - term trading is recommended [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, foreign spot is strong, domestic inventory is rising, and tire operating rate is high, with a neutral assessment [4]. - The basis shows that the spot price is 13,650 and the basis is - 75, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Inventory: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week and year - on - year; the inventory in Qingdao area decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year, with a neutral assessment [4]. - The market trend shows that the 20 - day line is downward and the price is running below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - The main positions show that the main net short position increased, which is bearish [4]. - The market is dominated by market sentiment, and short - term trading is recommended [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - Likely Factors: The domestic economy is gradually recovering, downstream consumption is at a high level, and raw material prices are strong [6]. - Bearish Factors: Supply is increasing, market inventory is rising, and the external environment is bearish [6]. 3.3 Spot Price - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (not for delivery) increased on June 5 [8]. 3.4 Inventory - The exchange inventory has changed little recently [14]. - The Qingdao area inventory has changed little recently [17]. 3.5 Import The import volume has a seasonal decline [19]. 3.6 Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales have a seasonal decline [21][23]. - Tire production reached a new high in the same period [25]. - Tire industry exports have declined [27]. 3.7 Basis The basis became spot premium on June 5 [29].