《能源化工》日报-20250610

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices rose due to macro - factors such as a weaker US dollar and optimistic sentiment from US - China trade negotiations. OPEC + production increased in May, but less than planned. The market is in a strong - side shock trend, suggesting a short - term long - bias approach. Resistance levels are given for WTI, Brent, and SC. Options can use a straddle structure [2]. Polyester Industry - PX: Supply has increased, but short - term downside is limited due to downstream demand and geopolitical factors. Strategies include short - term observation, 9 - 1 short - spread, and narrowing the PX - SC spread. - PTA: Supply - demand is weakening, but there is support at low levels. Strategies are to focus on the 4600 support and use a short - on - rebound approach, and 9 - 1 short - spread. - Ethylene Glycol: Supply is expected to remain low in June, with good supply - demand structure but limited upside due to weak demand. It is expected to trade in a range, and look for 9 - 1 long - spread opportunities. - Short - fiber: Processing fee recovery is limited, and absolute price follows raw materials. Strategies are similar to PTA and expanding the processing fee at low levels. - Bottle - chip: Supply - demand is expected to improve in June, and the processing fee is supported. Strategies are similar to PTA and expanding the processing fee at the lower end of the 350 - 600 yuan/ton range [6]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic Soda: Recent decline is due to cost reduction. Supply has increased overall, but decreased in Shandong. Demand is supported by alumina. Inventory is accumulating in East China. Hold the 7 - 9 long - spread before price cuts or large - scale warehouse - receipt outflows. - PVC: Short - term is in a shock trend, but long - term supply - demand contradiction is prominent. Supply pressure will increase in June, and demand is weak. Adopt a short - selling strategy [11][16]. Styrene Industry - Short - term styrene may fluctuate, and mid - term pay attention to the bearish opportunity from raw material resonance. Downstream 3S profits have improved, and port inventory has decreased slightly, but supply may increase after plant restart [19][22]. PE and PP Industry - PE: Inventory is accumulating at the beginning of the month, with slight destocking in social inventory. Supply and demand are balanced in June, with limited up - and - down drivers. - PP: New capacity will be put into operation in June - July, and demand is in the off - season. There is a large inventory - accumulation pressure. Adopt a short - selling strategy at high prices [26][27]. Urea Industry - High supply is not matched by demand. Agricultural demand has slightly improved but lacks activity, and industrial demand is weakened by the decline in compound fertilizer production. Future trends depend on export policy and market sentiment. [33] Methanol Industry - Supply is abundant with high domestic production and expected high imports. Demand has increased in MTO but with poor downstream profits. Price should be traded in the 2200 - 2350 range, and pay attention to the transition from implicit to explicit inventory accumulation [35]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Prices and Spreads: Brent rose to $67.04/barrel, WTI to $65.35/barrel, and SC to 479.30 yuan/barrel on June 10. Various spreads such as Brent - WTI and EFS also changed [2]. - Refined Oil: NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil prices changed, and their spreads and cracking spreads also had corresponding fluctuations [2]. Polyester Industry - Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows: Prices of POY, FDY, DTY, etc. decreased, and cash flows of some products also declined [6]. - PX - related: CFR China PX price decreased, and various PX spreads changed [6]. - PTA - related: PTA prices decreased, and its spreads and basis also changed [6]. - MEG: Port inventory increased, and to - port expectations changed. Supply and demand are expected to be good in June [6]. - Industry开工率: The operating rates of various industries in the polyester chain changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [6]. Chlor - alkali Industry - PVC and Caustic Soda Prices: Prices of Shandong caustic soda and East China PVC remained stable or changed slightly, and futures prices also had corresponding fluctuations [11]. - Overseas Quotes and Export Profits: Overseas quotes of caustic soda and PVC remained stable, but export profits changed [12][13]. - Supply: Chlor - alkali operating rates and industry profits changed, with PVC operating rate increasing and some profit margins improving [14]. - Demand: Operating rates of downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC changed, and PVC pre - sales volume increased [15][16]. - Inventory: Inventories of caustic soda and PVC changed, with some accumulating and some remaining stable [16]. Styrene Industry - Upstream Prices: Prices of Brent crude, CFR Japan naphtha, and CFR China pure benzene increased [19]. - Styrene Spot and Futures: Styrene spot and futures prices increased, and basis and month - spreads changed [20]. - Overseas Quotes and Import Profits: Overseas quotes of styrene increased, and import profits decreased [21]. - Industry Operating Rates and Profits: Operating rates of some industries in the styrene chain changed, and profits of some products improved significantly [22]. - Inventory: Inventories of pure benzene and styrene ports and downstream products changed [22]. PE and PP Industry - Prices and Spreads: Futures and spot prices of PE and PP changed slightly, and their spreads also had corresponding fluctuations [26]. - Inventory: Inventories of PE and PP enterprises and social inventories increased [26]. - Operating Rates: Operating rates of PE and PP devices and downstream industries changed [26]. Urea Industry - Futures and Spot Prices: Urea futures prices changed, and upstream raw material prices remained stable. Spot prices in different regions decreased [32]. - Supply and Demand: Domestic urea production decreased slightly, and inventory increased. Agricultural and industrial demands were weak [33]. Methanol Industry - Prices and Spreads: Methanol futures and spot prices changed, and various spreads and basis also changed [35]. - Inventory: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories increased [35]. - Operating Rates: Operating rates of upstream and downstream industries of methanol changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [35].