Anadolu Group Holding：首次覆盖阿纳多卢集团控股（AGHOL TI），评级为买入：防御性优势-20250610

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Anadolu Group Holding (AGHOL) with a Buy rating and a target price of TRY373 per share, implying approximately 43% upside potential [6][22][30]. Core Views - Anadolu Group Holding is a consumer conglomerate with strong exposure to the defensive FMCG sector, primarily driven by its key businesses in beer, soft drinks, and food retail, which accounted for 93% of the group's revenue and EBITDA in 2024 [2][13][36]. - The company has demonstrated solid growth execution, with revenues and EBITDA growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.7% and 12.2%, respectively, from 2019 to 2024 [3][48]. - The group's net debt/EBITDA ratio has significantly improved, decreasing from 2.3x in 2019 to 0.5x by the end of 2024, indicating strong deleveraging and balance sheet strength [4][18][66]. - The current NAV discount of AGHOL has narrowed from an average of 77% in 2019 to 35%, which is viewed as unjustified given the company's defensive positioning and growth potential [5][21][40]. Summary by Sections Investment Case - AGHOL's portfolio is resilient, with a strong focus on defensive FMCG sectors, which are less susceptible to macroeconomic volatility [13][36]. - The company has a leading position in the Turkish market, with significant stakes in Anadolu Efes, Coca-Cola Icecek, and Migros, all of which have strong growth prospects [2][13][36]. Financial Performance - The retail and soft drink segments are the primary growth drivers, with revenue CAGRs of approximately 14% and 13%, respectively, from 2019 to 2024 [3][14][49]. - The beer segment has faced challenges, growing at a CAGR of 7.1% over the past five years due to external factors like the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions [55]. Balance Sheet Strength - The group's net debt has decreased significantly, with a notable improvement in cash flow generation capabilities, supporting a comfortable leverage position [4][18][66]. - The deleveraging trend is primarily driven by Migros, which has transitioned to a net cash position [70]. Dividend Profile - AGHOL has seen a substantial increase in dividends received, rising from TRY0.8 billion (USD46 million) in 2022 to TRY2.7 billion (USD81 million) in 2024, with a dividends-paid-to-received ratio reaching 52% in 2025 year-to-date [19][77][80]. Valuation - The target NAV estimate for AGHOL is TRY90.9 billion, with a 25% holding company discount applied to arrive at the target price of TRY373 per share [6][22][29].