原木期货日报-20250610

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The demand for logs is stable with a slight increase this week, but due to low prices from the foreign market in May, traders are more willing to take delivery, leading to expected port arrival pressure in June. The spot market is weak and stable, and the fundamental weak - balance pattern persists. The current futures price has rebounded, and as the 07 contract enters the delivery month, there may be differences in the futures price under the logic of delivery cost. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading, and as the main contract will shift to the 09 contract this month, attention can be paid to the spread between months and participate in reverse spreads [3][4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of log contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 all increased slightly on June 8, with increases of 0.46%, 0.25%, and 0.19% respectively. The spreads between 7 - 9, 9 - 11, and 7 - 11 contracts also changed, with increases of 1.5, 0.5, and 2.0 respectively. The basis of each contract decreased. Spot prices of various types of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged, and the foreign market quotes also remained stable [1]. - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate increased slightly, and the import theoretical cost also increased slightly, with an increase of 0.73 yuan [1]. Supply - In terms of monthly supply, the port direct - shipping volume in May increased by 39.0 (24.17%) compared to April, reaching 200.3 million cubic meters. The number of ships in the port increased by 8.0 (13.79%) compared to the previous period, reaching 66.0 [1]. Inventory - Weekly inventory in major ports: China's inventory decreased by 2.0 ( - 0.59%) to 339.00 million cubic meters. Shandong's inventory increased by 2.0 (1.06%) to 191.50 million cubic meters, while Jiangsu's inventory decreased by 1.5 ( - 1.35%) to 111.98 million cubic meters [3]. Demand - Weekly average daily outbound volume: China's average daily outbound volume increased by 0.03 (0%) to 6.31 million cubic meters. Shandong's average daily outbound volume increased by 0.07 to 3.38 million cubic meters, while Jiangsu's decreased by 0.01 to 2.28 million cubic meters [3].