Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The report analyzes various financial, commodity, and agricultural products, providing insights on their market trends and offering corresponding trading strategies based on factors such as economic negotiations, supply - demand dynamics, and cost changes [3]. Group 3: Summary by Categories Financial - Stock Index: Due to upcoming Sino - US economic and trade consultations, the stock index continues to rise. The lower support of the index is stable, but the upward breakthrough pressure remains. The index is affected by news in the short - term and may fluctuate. It is recommended to sell the put options of the CSI 1000 Index with an exercise price around 5800 in July to collect the premium [3]. - Treasury Bonds: The 10 - year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate in the range of 1.6 - 1.75%, and the 30 - year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate in the range of 1.8 - 1.95%. The short - end varieties are relatively strong. It is recommended to conduct range - band operations, and currently, the odds are limited, so it is advisable to wait and see. For the spot - futures strategy, pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy of the TS2509 contract. In the medium - term, pay attention to the strategy of steepening the curve [3]. - Precious Metals: Gold may have pulse - type fluctuations during the short - term range - bound oscillation. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money gold option straddles to earn time value. Silver has continued to break through, and its high volatility has pushed the price up to around $38 per ounce (9000 yuan per kilogram). Long positions can be held [3]. - Container Shipping Index (European Line): The market is in a consolidation phase. It is recommended to buy the 08 contract on dips [3]. Black Metals - Steel: The demand and inventory of industrial steel products are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. It is advisable to wait and see for unilateral operations. For arbitrage, consider the strategy of going long on steel products and short on raw materials [3]. - Iron Ore: The high - level of molten iron production is declining. Pay attention to the marginal changes in terminal demand. The price is in a range - bound oscillation, with a reference range of 700 - 745 [3]. - Coking Coal: The auction failure rate in the market has decreased, and the coal mine production at a high level is declining. The spot price may still fall, but the expectation has improved. It is recommended to short the JM2509 contract on rallies [3]. - Coke: The third - round price cut by mainstream steel mills on June 6 has been implemented. Coking coal is weak and making concessions. It is recommended to short the J2509 contract on rallies [3]. - Silicon Iron: There is an expectation of a rebound. The supply in Ningxia is increasing rapidly, and the cost is temporarily stable. It is recommended to short when the price rebounds to 5300 - 5400 [3]. - Manganese Silicon: The supply pressure still exists. Pay attention to the cost changes. It is recommended to short when the price rebounds to 5700 - 5800 [3]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The CL spread has widened again, and the US copper restocking continues. The main contract price is expected to be in the range of 77000 - 80000 [3]. - Zinc: The mine production is gradually increasing, and the zinc price is oscillating weakly. The main contract price is expected to be in the range of 21000 - 23000 [3]. - Nickel: The market is in a narrow - range oscillation, and the fundamentals have not changed much. The main contract price is expected to be in the range of 118000 - 126000 [3]. - Stainless Steel: The market is operating weakly, and the fundamental contradictions remain unchanged. The main contract price is expected to be in the range of 12600 - 13200 [3]. - Tin: The supply recovery progress is slow, and the macro - sentiment has improved. The tin price continues to rebound. It is recommended to short after the sentiment stabilizes [3]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The warming macro - atmosphere has boosted market confidence. The market is currently in a relatively strong oscillation trend. It is recommended to take a short - term long - biased approach. The upper pressure levels for WTI are [64.66], for Brent are [67, 69], and for SC are [475, 485] [3]. - Urea: The short - term supply is strong and the demand is weak, dragging the market down. Pay attention to the policy and sentiment game in the future. It is advisable to wait and see for unilateral operations and wait for a rebound opportunity. The support level of the main contract is adjusted to 1640 - 1660, and it is recommended to conduct a reverse spread operation on the 09 - 01 spread [3]. - PX: The supply - demand situation has weakened marginally, and the price is under pressure, but the tight spot market still provides support. The short - term price is expected to be in the range of 6500 - 6900. It is recommended to short on rallies. Pay attention to the reverse spread opportunity for PX9 - 1 and narrow the PX - SC spread on rallies [3]. - PTA: The supply - demand situation has weakened marginally, but the raw material support is strong. The low - level price still has support. The short - term price is expected to be in the range of 4600 - 4900. It is recommended to short on rallies and conduct a reverse spread operation on PTA9 - 1 [3]. - Short - fiber: Some factories have reduced contracts, and the short - term processing fee has slightly recovered, but the driving force is still limited. The unilateral strategy is the same as that for PTA. It is recommended to widen the processing fee on the low - level of the PF disk [3]. - Bottle Chip: In the peak demand season, there is an expectation of production cuts. The processing fee is bottom - seeking, and the price follows the cost. The main contract processing fee is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 600 yuan per ton. Pay attention to the opportunity to widen the processing fee at the lower limit of the range [3]. - Ethanol: The short - term demand is weak, but the supply - demand structure of MEG is still good. It is expected to oscillate in the range. The short - term EG09 is expected to oscillate in the range of 4200 - 4400. Pay attention to the positive spread opportunity for EG9 - 1 on dips [3]. - Styrene: The short - term raw materials and styrene inventory reduction support the price. Pay attention to the medium - term supply - demand pressure. It is advisable to wait and see in the short - term and short on rallies when the raw materials resonate in the medium - term [3]. - Caustic Soda: The alumina procurement supports the spot price. Pay attention to the inventory and cost. Continue to hold the 7 - 9 positive spread [3]. - PVC: The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to effectively resolve. Pay attention to the changes in India's BIS policy in June. It is recommended to short on rallies [3]. - Synthetic Rubber: The price follows the commodity market fluctuations. Hold the short position of the BR2507 contract [3]. - LLDPE: The overall situation has not changed much, and the trading volume is moderate [3]. - PP: The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is oscillating weakly. It is recommended to short on rallies [3]. - Methanol: The inventory inflection point has appeared, and the price is oscillating [3]. Agricultural Products - Soybeans: The CBOT price is rising steadily, and the price is oscillating strongly [3]. - Palm Oil: The market is in a narrow - range oscillation, waiting for fundamental data guidance. The short - term price is testing the support level of 8000 [3]. - Sugar: The overseas supply outlook is relatively loose. It is recommended to short on rallies, with a reference range of 5600 - 5850 [3]. - Cotton: The downstream market remains weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [3]. - Eggs: There is a risk that the spot price may weaken again. Short the 07 contract on rallies and hold the short position [3]. - Apples: The inventory apples are sold slowly, but the price is firm. The main contract price is expected to be around 7500 [3]. - Jujubes: The market price is weakly stable. The short - term price is expected to be around 8900 [3]. - Peanuts: The market price is oscillating. The main contract price is expected to be around 8300 [3]. - Soda Ash: The oversupply logic continues. It is recommended to short on rallies. Hold the short position and the 79 positive spread [3]. Special Commodities - Glass: The cold - repair news has disturbed the market, and the price has rebounded. It is advisable to wait and see in the short - term [3]. - Rubber: The market sentiment has improved, and the rubber price continues to rebound. It is recommended to short on rallies above 14000 [3]. - Industrial Silicon: The trading volume of the industrial silicon futures has increased, and the price is rising. The price is in a low - level oscillation [3]. - Polysilicon: The price of downstream products has fallen, and the polysilicon futures price has declined. It is recommended to hold the short position if there is one [3]. - Lithium Carbonate: The sentiment is temporarily stable, and the price is oscillating in a narrow range. The fundamental logic has not been reversed. The main contract price is expected to be in the range of 56000 - 62000 [3].
广发期货日评-20250610
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-06-10 07:04