花旗：美国半导体-4 月销售符合我们的预期，但低于季节性水平。维持半导体销售同比增长 8% 的预期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the semiconductor industry, forecasting a sales increase of 8% year-over-year (YoY) for 2025, amounting to $675.3 billion [5][20][12] Core Insights - April semiconductor sales were reported at $55.0 billion, reflecting an 11.1% month-over-month (MoM) decline, which is below the seasonal expectation of a 10.0% MoM decrease, but aligns with the report's estimate [1][2][8] - The report anticipates a below-seasonal growth in the second half of 2025 due to a tariff-induced correction, despite a strong start to the year [5][20] - The top picks for investment in the semiconductor sector are Analog Devices (ADI) and Texas Instruments (TXN), identified as the most defensive options during economic downturns [5][23][1] Sales Performance - April sales increased by 23.2% YoY, consistent with the report's expectations [2][8] - The three-month rolling average sales from February to April 2025 were $57.0 billion, showing a 20.9% YoY increase [9] Unit and Pricing Trends - Units excluding discretes decreased by 7.8% MoM, which is below the estimate of a 7.3% decline but better than the seasonal expectation of a 9.7% drop [3][14] - Average Selling Prices (ASPs) excluding discretes fell by 3.2% MoM, which is better than the estimated decline of 5.3% but below the seasonal increase of 0.2% [4][16] Future Projections - The report projects that units excluding discretes will grow by 4% YoY and ASPs will also increase by 4% YoY in 2025 [20][12] - The semiconductor industry is expected to experience seasonal growth in the first and second quarters of 2025, followed by below-seasonal growth in the third and fourth quarters [5][20]