花旗：美国股票策略-年中回顾与目标更新

Investment Rating - The report lifts the year-end 2025 S&P 500 target to 6300, indicating a structural bullishness on US large cap stocks with a mid-2026 target of 6500, suggesting high single-digit percentage upside over the next twelve months [1][12]. Core Insights - The report reflects a more constructive fundamental view and an expectation for persistency in the current valuation backdrop, despite high policy volatility [1][5]. - The S&P 500 is expected to hold a forward P/E of 21x, which puts pressure on 2026 EPS growth to meet or exceed consensus estimates [4][12]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing structural shift in earnings contribution from Cyclicals to Growth, which contextualizes historical valuation comparisons [4][5]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The initial view for 2025 anticipated a flattish first half followed by improvement, but tariff risks led to a target downgrade earlier in the year [2][11]. - The S&P 500's base case for year-end 2025 is set at 6300, with an increase in full-year index earnings estimate to $261 from $255, although still below the previous projection of $270 [3][14]. Valuation Analysis - The S&P 500 is trading at the higher end of its historic valuation range, with a forward P/E of 21x expected to persist [4][12]. - The report notes that the tariff impacts have been moderated, leading to a less negative EPS impact on the index [26][31]. Sector Performance - The report highlights that Consumer Discretionary and Energy sectors are expected to face the most negative progression in 2025, while Financials and Information Technology sectors are critical for stability and growth [34][35]. - Health Care is identified as a wildcard sector, with various market concerns influencing its performance [36]. Earnings and Growth Expectations - The report indicates a positive outlook for earnings growth into 2026, supported by improved macroeconomic conditions and a less severe tariff path [28][31]. - Capex spending intentions remain strong despite policy uncertainties, with expectations for continued growth in capital expenditures across sectors [47][51].