花旗：美国经济-美联储按兵不动，但降息仍会到来

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook with expectations for policy rate cuts to resume in September, following a stable unemployment rate and job growth that suggests a cooling economy [5][6][9]. Core Insights - The unemployment rate remains stable at 4.2%, with 139k new jobs added, primarily in leisure and hospitality and healthcare sectors, but the labor market is expected to loosen further [5][11][23]. - Economic indicators such as ISM services and manufacturing are below 50, indicating a cooling economy, and the Fed's Beige Book reflects a slowdown in activity and hiring [5][13][15]. - The report anticipates a total of 125 basis points in rate cuts through March of the following year, with the first cut expected in September [5][6][9]. Summary by Sections Employment Data - The unemployment rate increased slightly from 4.187% to 4.244%, and would be around 4.6% if not for a drop in the labor force size [7][23]. - Job growth is slowing, with a significant drop in household survey employment by 696k, indicating potential further increases in the unemployment rate [7][11]. Economic Activity - The report highlights a decline in auto sales to 15.65 million (SAAR) in May, suggesting that previous strong sales were due to front-loading ahead of tariffs [16]. - Retail sales data expected to be released will provide further insights into the economic conditions influenced by trade-related uncertainties [16]. Inflation and Price Trends - A benign monthly inflation reading is projected, with core CPI expected at 0.248% MoM in May, indicating minimal impact from tariffs [18][24]. - Producer prices are expected to rise, with a forecast of a 0.5% MoM increase in core goods PPI, suggesting potential upward pressure on consumer prices in the coming months [19][31]. Federal Reserve Outlook - The report outlines expectations for the Fed to maintain a "wait-and-see" approach, with rate cuts anticipated as economic conditions evolve [5][6][9]. - Fed officials are expected to discuss the implications of the latest employment data at upcoming meetings, with a focus on the labor market's trajectory [6][9].