瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250610

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The total demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries is showing a downward trend. The large number of warehouse receipts brings significant delivery pressure to the futures market. Although industrial silicon shows obvious short - term rebound signs, if the prices of downstream aluminum alloy and polysilicon cannot rebound, the price rebound of industrial silicon may end. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy in the medium to long term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 7,415 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the position volume of the main contract is 155,627 lots, down 21,965 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 42,729 lots, down 11,934 lots; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 59,252 lots, down 927 lots; the price difference between the July - August contracts is - 5, down 5 [2] 3.2现货市场 - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 8,150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 8,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 735 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the spot price of DMC is 11,240 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,760 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 540 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4产业情况 - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 299,700 tons, down 36,050 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 587,000 tons, down 2,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [2] 3.5下游情况 - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 38,700 tons, down 200 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,200 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the overseas price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.28 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 16,555.02 tons, down 1,621.87 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 58.67%, down 0.53 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.528 million tons, down 127,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [2] 3.6行业消息 - On the evening of June 9, Hesheng Silicon Industry (603260) issued a statement to refute market rumors, saying it will take legal measures against those spreading false rumors. The state is increasing investment in long - term data infrastructure construction. In terms of industrial silicon supply, although Yunnan and Sichuan are approaching the wet season with potential electricity cost advantages, the southwest region shows no strong willingness to resume production [2] 3.7观点总结 - The downstream of industrial silicon is mainly in organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy. In the organic silicon market, prices are flat, and production cuts have had some results but drag on industrial silicon demand. In the polysilicon sector, mainstream enterprises are cutting production, and the overall industry is running at a reduced load, with downstream prices falling, also dragging on industrial silicon demand. In the aluminum alloy field, there is some demand support from the consumer electronics and automotive industries, but enterprises replenish inventory as needed, with inventory increasing, prices weakening, and being in a passive de - stocking state, difficult to drive industrial silicon demand [2] 3.8重点关注 - There is no news today [2]