合成橡胶产业日报-20250610

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Due to sufficient supply of raw material butadiene, the cost support for cis - butadiene rubber production has weakened. Affected by weak cost and bearish macro - economic expectations, traders are selling at a loss. Last week, producers' inventory increased slightly while traders' inventory decreased slightly. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises continued to decline last week. Although the output of some plants will gradually return to normal as the maintenance enterprises restart, the overall order performance of tire enterprises is average and the inventory clearance is slow, which restricts the increase of capacity utilization rate. The br2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,750 - 11,500 yuan/ton in the short - term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 11,230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract was 21,708 lots, a decrease of 1,273 lots. The 6 - 7 spread of synthetic rubber was - 35 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 5,720 tons, a decrease of 60 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai was 11,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 11,600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of synthetic rubber was 370 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil was 67.04 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.57 US dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil was 65.29 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.71 US dollars/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 780 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of naphtha CFR Japan was 567.88 US dollars/ton, an increase of 7.38 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 1100 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market was 9,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene was 147,800 tons/week, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 68.02%, a decrease of 1.28 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 27,000 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons. The daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 47%, an increase of 0.91 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 121,500 tons, a decrease of 6,800 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 67.25%, a decrease of 6.29 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 882 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 34,000 tons, a decrease of 500 tons; the producers' inventory was 28,300 tons, an increase of 200 tons; the traders' inventory was 5,680 tons, a decrease of 680 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 73.86%, a decrease of 4.39 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 63.47%, a decrease of 1.33 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.08 million pieces, a decrease of 610,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.39 million pieces, a decrease of 4.27 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 41.87 days, a decrease of 0.09 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 45.84 days, a decrease of 0.38 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of June 5th, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 34,000 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the previous period (May 28th, 2025), a month - on - month decrease of 1.39%. As of June 5th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.05%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.46 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 16.12 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.65%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.15 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.94 percentage points. Due to the "Dragon Boat Festival holiday", some enterprises carried out shutdown maintenance, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises continued to decline. In May 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 5% compared with April 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 6%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 435,500 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 1% [2].