建信期货棉花日报-20250611

Group 1: Report Information - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: June 11, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: Macro factors boosted Zhengzhou cotton to rebound. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 14,743 yuan/ton, up 123 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton yarn market continued to weaken, entering the seasonal off - season. The grey fabric market remained sluggish, with weak trading volume and fewer orders. The raw material procurement was cautious, and the grey fabric inventory increased [7]. - Macro and Overseas Situation: The macro - environment was temporarily good under China - US consultations. Overseas, the old - crop shipment progress was good, and the good - quality rate was weaker than last year, supporting the foreign market. The US Department of Agriculture's June supply - demand report was to be watched [8]. - Domestic Situation: The domestic new - cotton output was expected to increase steadily with a stable or increasing planting area. There was a high risk of high - temperature heat damage in the budding period in most cotton areas in southern Xinjiang this week. The downstream cotton yarn and grey fabric sectors continued to weaken, and the market demand was not strong. Due to the Gurban Festival in Xinjiang, some spinning mills had holidays, and the short - term startup rate decreased. The downstream finished - product inventory increased steadily, and the grey fabric inventory pressure was greater than that of cotton yarn. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton would fluctuate within a narrow range, and the performance of the upper pressure level should be watched [8]. Group 3: Industry News - As of the week ending June 8, the US cotton planting progress was 76% (last year: 79%, five - year average: 80%, previous week: 66%), the budding rate was 12% (last week: 8%, last year: 13%, five - year average: 12%), and the good - quality rate was 49% (last year: 56%) [9]. - As of June 7, 2025, the Brazilian cotton harvest progress was 1.4% (last week: 0.9%, last year: 1.7%) [9]. Group 4: Data Overview - The report provided multiple data charts including CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, China cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, and warehouse receipt volume, etc., with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [16][18][19]