建信期货油脂日报-20250611

Report Information - Report Date: June 11, 2025 [2] - Report Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Analysts: Yulanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Core Viewpoints - MPOB's latest data shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in May reached an eight - month high. Strong exports only offset part of the increase in production and imports. The report is slightly positive for palm oil. Malaysia's export data for the first 10 days of June is good, supporting the market, and palm oil continues to fluctuate. [7] - For rapeseed oil, although China and Canada have restarted negotiations, there are few rapeseed purchases after June - July. The domestic spot and basis are strong, and the 9000 level has strong short - term support. [7] - Brazil's abundant soybean supply continues to pressure the market. Attention should be paid to recent soybean imports and crushing. An improved supply situation may bring pressure to soybean and oil products. [7] Market Quotes and Operation Suggestions - Quotes: Dongguan rapeseed oil trader quotes: Dongguan triple - pressed rapeseed oil 09 + 60 (June), first - pressed rapeseed oil 09 + 240 (June). East China market soybean oil basis price: First - grade soybean oil: July - September: 09 + 260; October - January: 01 + 320; April - June: 05 + 280. Guangdong market first - grade soybean oil spot price: Dongguan: Y2509 + 260. East China port 24 - degree palm oil: P09 + 440 yuan/ton (truck transport only), June shipment P09 + 380 yuan/ton, July shipment P09 + 400 yuan/ton. [7] - Operation Suggestions: Pay attention to weather, tariffs, and biodiesel policies of various countries, as well as soybean imports and crushing. [7] Industry News - Malaysia Palm Oil Data: In May 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.7716 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.05%; imports were 69,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.32%; exports were 1.3872 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.62%; and the end - of - month inventory was 1.9902 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.65%. [8] - Malaysia Palm Oil Export in June: According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 - 10 were 371,600 tons, a 26.4% increase compared to the same period in May. According to AmSpec, exports were 327,355 tons, an 8.1% increase compared to the same period in May. [8] - Domestic Palm Oil Inventory: As of the end of the 23rd week of 2025, the total domestic palm oil inventory was 365,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons from the previous week; the contract volume was 24,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the previous week. [9] - Brazilian Soybean Sales: As of June 6, 2025, Brazilian farmers had sold 64% of the expected 2024/25 soybean production (about 110.35 million tons). This is lower than 71.8% in the same period last year and 76.9% of the five - year average. Due to factors such as weak global prices and high logistics costs, farmers' overall sales willingness is conservative. [9] Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including spot prices and basis changes of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, fourth - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, as well as palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil basis changes, and P1 - 5, P5 - 9, P9 - 1 spreads, and exchange rates of US dollars against Ringgit and Renminbi. [14][15][23]