建信期货原油日报-20250611

Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: June 11, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ actual production increase is lower than market expectations, and the peak travel season in Europe and the United States is gradually starting, so there is some upward momentum for oil prices in the short term [7] - In the later stage, as tariff negotiations continue to advance, demand expectations are expected to be further raised, but still lower than the level before the tariff war [7] - The balance sheet adjustment is limited, and inventory accumulation is still expected in the 2nd - 4th quarters [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - WTI's opening price was $64.8, closing price was $65.38, with a high of $65.43, low of $64.20, a rise of 1.24%, and trading volume of 21.11 million lots; Brent's opening price was $65.85, closing price was $66.34, with a high of $66.39, low of $65.38, a rise of 0.93%, and trading volume of 21.62 million lots; SC's opening price was 478.2 yuan/barrel, closing price was 479.8 yuan/barrel, with a high of 482.4 yuan/barrel, low of 474.8 yuan/barrel, a rise of 1.27%, and trading volume of 9.24 million lots [6] - OPEC+ 5 member countries' crude oil production increase in May was still lower than the commitment, basically in line with expectations, which promoted the recent rise in oil prices [6] - Saudi Arabia has stated to increase production, but the actual production increase of 8 member countries has not reached the declared level. If the production increase falls short of expectations, it will provide additional support to the supply side [7] - In the 5 - month report, due to the suspension of the Sino - US tariff conflict, the three major institutions adjusted the demand expectations, with the overall improvement. The IEA significantly raised the demand expectation, while the adjustment range of EIA and OPEC was relatively limited. Due to the supply growth expectations of OPEC+ and countries like Brazil and Guyana, the balance sheet adjustment was limited, and inventory accumulation was still expected in the 2nd - 4th quarters [7] 2. Industry News - Iraq's State Oil Marketing Organization SOMO will set the official selling price of Basra Medium crude oil sold to Asia in July at a premium of $0.30 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai crude oil average price [8] - The oil production of five OPEC+ member countries participating in the production increase increased by 180,000 barrels per day in May, lower than the promised increase of 310,000 barrels per day [8] - Due to refinery shutdowns, fuel imports in California, USA reached the highest level in 4 years [8] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, WTI and Brent fund positions, spot prices of various crude oils, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventory [10][12][18]