《能源化工》日报-20250611

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report PE and PP - PE had inventory accumulation at the beginning of the week and slight destocking in social inventory. With domestic supply slightly increasing and imports decreasing, and being in the off - season of demand, it is expected to destock in June with limited supply pressure and driving forces. - PP will have new capacity put into operation from June to July, and being in the seasonal off - season of demand, there is a large pressure of inventory accumulation. With weakening basis and weak non - standard price ratio, and low export profit, it is recommended to short at high prices [19]. Crude Oil - Overnight crude oil prices fluctuated. The optimistic sentiment of China - US trade negotiations and the reduction of Saudi crude oil supply to China supported the market, but poor economic data restricted the upside. - Overall, the warming macro - atmosphere boosts demand expectations. In the summer consumption peak season and with no obvious increase in supply pressure, there is still a probability of destocking in upstream inventory. The market is currently in a relatively strong oscillatory trend, and it is recommended to take a short - term long - biased approach [23]. Styrene - The pure benzene market price rose strongly. The planned shutdown of a styrene factory and the continuous decline of styrene port inventory boosted the styrene market. The shutdown of North China pure benzene plants and downstream rigid - demand production supported the pure benzene price. - For styrene, the improvement of downstream profits led to some replenishment, driving a slight decline in port inventory. However, in the medium - term, attention should be paid to the marginal pressure on supply and demand after the restart of styrene plants, and the difficulty of destocking in the pure benzene end due to high imports. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to the short - biased opportunities caused by the resonance of raw material ends in the medium - term [29]. Caustic Soda and PVC - Caustic soda has recently declined, mainly due to the downward shift of the cost center. In terms of supply and demand, the supply has generally increased, but the capacity utilization rate in Shandong has declined due to maintenance. The demand side is in the non - aluminum off - season, but alumina still supports the demand in the core area. It is recommended to exit the positive spread and wait and see in the short - term, and wait and see on the single - side position. - For PVC, the short - term macro - sentiment has improved slightly, and it is expected to oscillate with no further intensification of supply - demand contradictions. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction is still prominent. It is recommended to take a short - biased approach [37]. Urea - The industry's daily production has reached 205,100 tons, showing overall weakness and failing to match the high supply. Agricultural demand has slightly improved, but the trading activity is not high, and the agricultural fertilizer reserve is lower than the same period last year. The decline in the compound fertilizer start - up rate further weakens industrial demand. The future trading logic focuses on the agricultural demand time point and export dynamics [45]. Methanol - On the supply side, the domestic start - up rate is high, and the import expectation is still high. Although there are short - term accidental reductions, the overall loose pattern remains unchanged. On the demand side, most MTO units have increased their loads, but the downstream profits have deteriorated. It is recommended to operate in the price range of 2,200 - 2,350 [48]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: After the profit repair of PX in the early stage, the supply has increased significantly in the near - term. With the further expansion of the production reduction plan of downstream polyester giants, the supply - demand of PX has weakened marginally. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, do short - term reverse spreads for PX9 - 1, and shrink the PX - SC spread when it is high. - PTA: The future PTA load will increase significantly, and with the early commissioning of a new PTA device, and the further expansion of the production reduction expectation of downstream giants, the supply - demand of PTA has weakened marginally. It is recommended to pay attention to the support around 4,500 - 4,600 and do reverse spreads for TA9 - 1 when it is high. - MEG: In June, the domestic production of ethylene glycol will remain low. The supply - demand structure in June is still good, with expectations of destocking in both implicit and explicit inventories. It is recommended that EG09 oscillate in the range of 4,200 - 4,400 and pay attention to the opportunity of positive spreads for EG9 - 1 when it is low. - Short - fiber: The processing fee of short - fiber has been repaired recently, but the terminal demand is still weak. It is recommended to take the same approach as PTA for PF unilaterally and expand the processing fee at the low level. - Bottle - chip: In June, the supply - demand of bottle - chips is expected to improve. It is recommended that the main - contract processing fee of PR is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 600 yuan/ton, and pay attention to the opportunity of expanding at the lower edge of the range [51]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs PE and PP - Prices and Spreads: The closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 all had small changes. The basis and price spreads of PE and PP also changed to different degrees. - Operating Rates: PE device operating rate increased by 0.83%, and downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 0.41%. PP device operating rate increased by 2.1%, and PP powder operating rate increased by 19.2% [19]. Crude Oil - Prices and Spreads: Brent, WTI, and SC prices all had small changes. The price spreads such as Brent - WTI and EFS also changed to different degrees. - Market Analysis: China - US trade negotiations, Saudi crude oil supply reduction, and geopolitical factors affected the crude oil market [23]. Styrene - Upstream Prices: Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene, and other upstream prices changed to different degrees. - Styrene Market: Styrene prices rose, and port inventory decreased slightly. The profits of downstream products such as PS, EPS, and ABS also changed [26][27][29]. Caustic Soda and PVC - Prices and Spreads: The prices of caustic soda and PVC and their price spreads changed to different degrees. - Operating Rates and Inventories: The operating rates of caustic soda and PVC production and their downstream industries changed, and the inventories of caustic soda and PVC also changed [33][35][37]. Urea - Futures and Spot Prices: Futures contract prices and spot market prices of urea were relatively stable. - Supply and Demand: Domestic urea daily production, operating rate, inventory, and other supply - demand indicators changed to different degrees [40][44][45]. Methanol - Prices and Spreads: Methanol futures prices, basis, and regional price spreads changed. - Inventory and Operating Rates: Methanol enterprise inventory, port inventory, and social inventory all increased. The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries also changed to different degrees [48]. Polyester Industry Chain - Prices and Spreads: The prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil, naphtha, and PX, and the prices and price spreads of downstream polyester products all changed to different degrees. - Operating Rates and Inventories: The operating rates of various links in the polyester industry chain changed, and the MEG port inventory increased [51].