LPG早报-20250611

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the LPG market remain weak, with chemical demand in Shandong providing some support, but supply pressures are high and demand remains sluggish in other regions [1]. - It is expected that the external supply will continue to increase and the inbound volume will decline. Chemical demand is expected to be supported in the short - term, with the PDH operating rate expected to increase next week [1]. - As temperatures rise, combustion demand is expected to decline, while gasoline demand recovery is expected to drive up the demand for alkylated oil, and the demand for C4 from MTBE plants is also expected to increase [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Changes - On a daily basis, civil gas prices increased in Shandong (+20 to 4620), East China (+40 to 4491), and South China (+20 to 4590); ether - post carbon four increased by 130 to 4810. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4491 [1]. - FEI and CP import costs increased, PP prices rose slightly, and the profits from FEI and CP for PP production increased. The PG futures fluctuated, with the basis of the 07 contract increasing by 37 to 372 and the 07 - 09 spread decreasing by 5 to 203 [1]. Weekly Situation - Last week, civil gas was generally weak, but Shandong rose due to chemical demand support, while ether - post carbon four declined. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4449. The PG futures fluctuated strongly, the basis of the 07 contract weakened to 351, and the spread strengthened significantly [1]. - Externally, FEI and MB were basically flat, CP declined, and the oil - gas ratio increased. The internal - external spread strengthened, especially PG - CP. The US - Asia arbitrage window closed, and freight rates rose slightly [1]. Variety Spreads - The production margin of PDH improved but remained poor; the production profit of FEI was higher than that of PP. The profitability of alkylated oil increased, the profit of gas fractionation and etherification changed little, and the profit of isomerization and etherification increased. FEI - MOPJ decreased, and the naphtha crack spread changed little [1]. Fundamental Situation - Port inventories increased slightly, and terminals actively offered discounts. Factory inventories increased, and Shandong factory inventories decreased due to chemical demand support. Arrivals increased (mainly in South China), and external supply increased significantly [1]. - Chemical demand is expected to be supported in the short - term, with the PDH operating rate basically flat and expected to increase next week. The demand for alkylated oil is expected to increase with the recovery of gasoline demand, and the demand for C4 from MTBE plants is expected to increase next week [1]. - As temperatures rise, combustion demand is expected to decline. In addition, the number of registered warrants is 9304 lots (-565) [1].