大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250611

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. For LLDPE, the cost side has support recently, but there are new capacity releases and weak demand. For PP, the cost side also has support, but overall demand is weak [4][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In May, the official PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 from April, while the Caixin PMI was 48.3%, down 2.1 from April, the first contraction since last October. The situation regarding China-US tariffs has eased after announcements in May, but the final negotiation result remains uncertain in the medium term. Recently, crude oil and coal prices have rebounded, supporting the cost side. In terms of supply and demand, it is the off - season for agricultural films, most factories are shut down, and there is still pressure from new capacity. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7160 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 54, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.8%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 57.6 tons (+3.6), indicating a neutral situation [4]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, suggesting a bearish signal [4]. - Main positions: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, suggesting a bearish signal [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract shows a volatile trend. Recently, the cost side has support, it is the off - season for agricultural film demand, there is still new capacity pressure, and industrial inventory is high. It is expected that PE will show a volatile trend today [4]. - Likely factors: Cost side has support recently [5]. - Negative factors: New capacity release and weak demand [5]. - Main logic: Cost - demand game and tariff policies [5]. PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, in May, the official PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 from April, and the Caixin PMI was 48.3%, down 2.1 from April, the first contraction since last October. The China - US tariff situation has eased, but the result is uncertain in the medium term. Crude oil and coal prices have rebounded, supporting the cost side. Downstream demand is mainly for immediate needs recently, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7150 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 209, with a premium - discount ratio of 3.0%, indicating a bullish signal [6]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 60.5 tons (+5.2), indicating a neutral situation [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, suggesting a bearish signal [6]. - Main positions: The net position of the PP main contract is long, and long positions are decreasing, suggesting a bullish signal [6]. - Expectation: The PP main contract shows a volatile trend. Recently, the cost side has support, overall demand is weak, and industrial inventory is high. It is expected that PP will show a volatile trend today [6]. - Likely factors: Cost side has support recently [7]. - Negative factors: Weak demand [7]. - Main logic: Cost - demand game and tariff policies [7]. Supply - Demand Balance Tables - Polyethylene: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have shown different trends. For example, the capacity increased from 1869.5 in 2018 to 3584.5 in 2024, with varying growth rates each year. The import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024. The expected capacity in 2025 is 4319.5 [13]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also changed. The capacity increased from 2245.5 in 2018 to 4418.5 in 2024, with different growth rates each year. The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024. The expected capacity in 2025 is 4906 [15].