大越期货燃料油早报-20250611

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply shortage of 0.5% sulfur marine fuel oil may last until July, and the weakening crack spread may prompt some Asian refineries to increase raw material procurement for this fuel oil grade [3]. - The high - sulfur fuel oil has a spot premium over the futures, and the Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased in the week of June 4, which is bullish. The price is below the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is flat, which is neutral. The high - sulfur main position changed from short to long, while the low - sulfur main position increased short positions [3]. - Overnight crude oil rose and then fell, which is expected to drive fuel oil to open lower. The EIA short - term report lowered next year's US crude oil production but predicted a shift from supply - demand balance to oversupply this year, so the fuel oil is under pressure, and it will fluctuate weakly in the short term. The FU2509 will operate in the range of 2900 - 2960, and the LU2508 will operate in the range of 3530 - 3600 [3]. - The market is driven by the uncertain supply - side production cuts and neutral demand [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The high - sulfur fuel oil's Singapore price is 435.05 dollars/ton with a basis of 245 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil's Singapore price is 499.5 dollars/ton with a basis of 115 yuan/ton. The high - sulfur fuel oil's main position changed from short to long, and the low - sulfur fuel oil's main position increased short positions. The expected operating ranges for FU2509 and LU2508 are given [3]. - The futures prices of FU and LU increased by 0.68% and 0.57% respectively, and the bases decreased by 5.02% and 26.15% respectively [5]. - The spot prices of various fuel oils in different regions increased, with the increase range from 0.20% to 1.98% [6]. 2. Multi - Short Concerns - Bullish factors: OPEC+ additional production cuts continue (but implementation needs to be tracked), and China's import quotas are released [4]. - Bearish factors: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and there is a possibility of relaxing sanctions on Russia [4]. 3. Fundamental Data - The supply of 0.5% sulfur marine fuel oil may remain tight until July due to the closed East - West arbitrage window, and the weakening crack spread may lead to increased raw material procurement [3]. 4. Inventory Data - The Singapore fuel oil inventory on June 4 was 2140.9 million barrels, a decrease of 61 million barrels compared to the previous period [3][8]. 5. Spread Data - There is information about the historical spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil futures [14].