大越期货纯碱早报-20250611

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation. The supply has declined from a high level and stabilized, terminal demand improvement is limited, and inventory, although declining, remains at a high level compared to the same period. The industry's supply - demand mismatch pattern has not been effectively improved [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - Fundamental: Alkali plant maintenance is gradually resuming, supply has declined from a high level and stabilized. Downstream float and photovoltaic glass daily melting amounts are stable, terminal demand is average, and soda ash factory inventory has declined but remains at a historical high; bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,244 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2509 is 1,208 yuan/ton, and the basis is 36 yuan, with futures at a discount to the spot; bullish [2]. - Inventory: The national soda ash factory inventory is 1.627 million tons, an increase of 0.17% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average; bearish [2]. - Disk: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; bearish [2]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing; bearish [2]. - Expectation: Soda ash fundamentals have strong supply and weak demand, and it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation in the short term [2]. 3.2 Influence Factors - Bullish: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [3]. - Bearish: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's output is at a historical high. The cold repair of downstream float glass for heavy soda is at a high level, and the daily melting amount continues to decrease, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Market | Main Contract Closing Price | Heavy Soda Ash: Low - end Price in Shahe | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,202 yuan/ton | 1,242 yuan/ton | 40 yuan | | Current Value | 1,208 yuan/ton | 1,244 yuan/ton | 36 yuan | | Change Rate | 0.50% | 0.16% | - 10.00% | [6] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,244 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. 3.5 Fundamentals - Supply - Production Profit: The profit of the combined - soda method for heavy soda in East China is 86 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - soda method for heavy soda in North China is - 10.10 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [15]. - Operating Rate and Production: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 80.76%, and the operating rate is expected to stabilize and rebound. The weekly production of soda ash is 704,100 tons, including 382,200 tons of heavy soda ash, and the production has declined from a historical high [18][20]. - Production Capacity Changes: In 2023, the new production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual planned production of 1 million tons [21]. 3.6 Fundamentals - Demand - Production and Sales Rate: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 107.66% [24]. - Downstream Demand: The daily melting amount of national float glass is 156,800 tons, and the operating rate of 75.53% continues to decline, resulting in weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting amount in production has rebounded to 98,700 tons, and the production has stabilized [27][30]. 3.7 Fundamentals - Inventory The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.627 million tons, including 837,000 tons of heavy soda ash, and the inventory is at a historical high compared to the same period [33]. 3.8 Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, output, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, and growth rates [34].