大越期货甲醇早报-20250611

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The methanol market is influenced by both bullish and bearish factors. It is expected to fluctuate this week, with potential for local and差异化 adjustments. The port ship - age limit policy may support the spot and futures markets, but inventory accumulation and arbitrage opportunities limit the upside. Inland, while some traders are more active, high supply and low demand persist, leading to a cautious market sentiment. The price of MA2509 is expected to oscillate between 2260 - 2310 [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The fundamentals of methanol 2509 are mixed. The basis shows that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish. Inventory has increased, which is also bullish. The 20 - day line is upward with the price above it, a bullish signal. However, the main positions are net short with an increase in short positions, which is bearish. Overall, the price is expected to fluctuate this week [5]. 2. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: Some domestic devices such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya are shut down. Iranian methanol production has decreased, and port inventory is at a low level. New acetic acid production capacity is coming online, and some northwest CTO plants are purchasing methanol [6]. - Bearish factors: Some previously shut - down domestic devices like Inner Mongolia Donghua have resumed production. There is a concentrated arrival of ships at ports in the second half of the month. Formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and MTBE production has declined. Coal - based methanol has profit margins and is actively selling, and some factories in production areas have inventory accumulation [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - Price data: In the spot market, prices in various regions such as Jiangsu, Shandong, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, and Fujian have increased to varying degrees. In the futures market, the closing price decreased slightly, and the basis and import spread have increased. The price difference between regions and the difference between China and Southeast Asia have also changed [8][9][11][25][28]. - Production profit: Coal - based methanol profit increased by 46 yuan/ton, natural - gas - based methanol loss decreased by 5 yuan/ton, and coke - oven - gas - based methanol profit increased by 323 yuan/ton [21]. - Operating rate: The national weighted average operating rate decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%. The operating rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions also decreased [8]. - Inventory: As of June 5, 2025, the total social inventory in East and South China ports was 45.84 tons, an increase of 6.4 tons from the previous period. The available circulation volume in coastal areas increased by 4.5 tons to 25.68 tons [5]. - Traditional downstream products: The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged. Formaldehyde production is at a loss, and its load increased slightly. Dimethyl ether production profit decreased, and its load increased. Acetic acid production profit decreased, and its load increased. MTO production is at a loss, and its load increased slightly [32][36][39][43][48]. 4. Maintenance Status - Domestic devices: Many domestic methanol production enterprises in Northwest, North, East, Southwest, and Northeast regions are in maintenance, with different maintenance start and end times and loss amounts [59]. - Overseas devices: Some Iranian devices are in the process of resuming production, and devices in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Qatar, and other countries are operating normally, while some are under maintenance [60]. - Olefin devices: Some olefin devices in Northwest, East, Central, Shandong, Northeast, and other regions are under maintenance, while others are operating stably [61].