广发期货日评-20250611

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - The market is affected by various factors such as Sino - US tariff negotiations, central bank policies, and trade consultations. Different sectors have different market trends and investment opportunities [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Sector - Stock Index: The index has stable lower support and upward breakthrough pressure. TMT stocks are down, and A - shares are in a correction. Sell put options on the CSI 1000 Index expiring in July with a strike price around 5800 to collect premiums [2]. - Treasury Bonds: The bond market is in a range - bound oscillation. The probability of an upward movement in bond futures has increased. For the 10 - year treasury bond, the interest rate is expected to be in the range of 1.60% - 1.75%, and for the 30 - year, 1.80% - 1.95%. Consider appropriate strategies based on interest rate fluctuations [2]. - Precious Metals: Gold is in a range - bound oscillation with possible pulse - type fluctuations. Use a strategy of selling out - of - the - money gold option straddles to earn time value. Silver is in a short - term strong trend, and long positions can be held [2]. Industrial Sector - Shipping: The container shipping index (European line) is in a range - bound consolidation. Consider going long on the main contract at low prices, with the 08 contract expected to oscillate between 1900 - 2200 [2]. - Steel: Industrial steel demand and inventory are deteriorating. Consider a long - steel short - raw material arbitrage operation. The steel market is in a range - bound oscillation [2]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore market is in a range - bound oscillation between 700 - 745. The molten iron output is falling from a high level [2]. - Coking Coal: The spot price may still fall, but the expectation has improved. Go long on the JM2509 contract at low prices [2]. - Coke: After the third round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills, the futures price is expected to rebound. Go long on the J2509 contract at low prices [2]. - Silicon Ferroalloy: The market is in a bottom - bound oscillation. Try shorting when the price rebounds to 5300 - 5400 [2]. - Manganese Silicon: There is still supply pressure. Try shorting when the price rebounds to 5700 - 5800 [2]. - Copper: The CL spread has widened again, and the US copper inventory replenishment continues. The main contract price is expected to be between 78000 - 80000 [2]. - Zinc: The zinc price is oscillating weakly, with the main contract price expected to be between 21000 - 23000 [2]. - Nickel: The spot sentiment is weak, and the fundamentals have not changed much. The main contract price is expected to be between 118000 - 126000 [2]. - Stainless Steel: The steel mills have cancelled price limits, and the market is weak. Adopt a high - short strategy after the sentiment stabilizes. The main contract price is expected to be between 12400 - 13000 [2]. - Tin: The tin price continues to rise due to slow supply recovery and improved macro - sentiment [2]. Energy and Chemical Sector - Crude Oil: The macro - environment has improved market confidence. The short - term trend is bullish. The upper pressure for WTI is [64, 66], for Brent is [67, 69], and for SC is [475, 485] [2]. - Urea: Supply is at a high level while demand is sluggish. The downward pressure on the futures price remains. The support level for the main contract is adjusted to 1640 - 1660 [2]. - PX: Supply has increased significantly, and downstream polyester production cuts have intensified. PX is under short - term pressure. Pay attention to the support around 6400 [2]. - PTA: Supply - demand is weaker than expected. PTA is under short - term pressure. Pay attention to the support around 4500 - 4600 [2]. - PF: Some factories have reduced contracts, and the short - term processing fee has slightly recovered. The strategy is similar to that of PTA [2]. - Bottle Chips: In the peak demand season, there are expectations of production cuts. The processing fee is bottom - seeking. The strategy is similar to that of PTA [2]. - Ethanol: Short - term demand is weak, but the supply - demand structure is good. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 4200 - 4400 [2]. - Styrene: Short - term raw materials and inventory reduction support the price. Pay attention to medium - term contradictions [2]. - Caustic Soda: Supply - demand expectations are poor, and the spot price has corrected. Exit the 7 - 9 calendar spread and wait on the sidelines [2]. - PVC: The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve. Adopt a high - short strategy and pay attention to Indian BIS policy changes in June [2]. - Synthetic Rubber: It follows the commodity market trend. Hold short positions in the BR2507 contract [2]. - LLDPE: The spot price has increased by 30 - 50, and the trading volume is moderate [2]. - PP: Supply and demand are both weak, and it is in a weak oscillation. Adopt a high - short strategy [2]. - Methanol: The inventory inflection point has appeared, and it is in an oscillation [2]. Agricultural Sector - Meal: During the Sino - US trade consultations, the futures price is strong [2]. - Pigs: Demand is weak due to hot weather, but the rising feed price supports the futures price. Pay attention to the performance around 13500 [2]. - Corn: The wheat support purchase has started, and the corn price is slightly bullish [2]. - Oils: There are both long and short factors, and the market is in a narrow - range oscillation. Palm oil is testing the support at 8000 in the short term [2]. - Sugar: Overseas supply is expected to be loose. Adopt a high - short trading strategy in the range of 5600 - 5850 [2]. - Cotton: The downstream market is weak. Adopt a high - short trading strategy [2]. - Eggs: The spot price may weaken again. Short the 07 contract on rebounds and hold short positions [2]. - Apples: The price is a bit chaotic, and the main contract is trading around 7500 [2]. - Juice: The market price is weakly stable, and it is trading around 8900 in the short term [2]. - Peanuts: The market price is oscillating, and the main contract is trading around 8300 [2]. - Soda Ash: The oversupply situation continues. Hold short positions at high prices and consider the 7 - 9 calendar spread [2]. Special Commodities - Glass: The market is affected by cold - repair news and is volatile. Wait on the sidelines in the short term [2]. - Rubber: Market sentiment has improved, and the rubber price is rebounding. Adopt a high - short strategy above 14000 [2]. - Industrial Silicon: After a rise, the futures price is oscillating with a reduction in positions. It is in a low - level oscillation [2]. New Energy Sector - Polysilicon: The fundamentals have no obvious changes, and the futures price is oscillating. Hold short positions if any [2]. - Lithium Carbonate: The sentiment is stable, and the price is in a narrow - range oscillation. The main contract is expected to trade between 56,000 - 62,000 [2].