大越期货豆粕早报-20250611

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean market in the US is affected by the start of Sino - US tariff negotiations and technical consolidation. It is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean planting and import arrivals, as well as the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations. The domestic soybean and soybean meal markets are also influenced by factors such as Sino - US tariff negotiations, import arrivals, and weather conditions, and are likely to return to a range - bound pattern in the short term [8][10][12]. - The soybean meal M2509 is expected to oscillate between 3000 and 3060, and the soybean A2509 is expected to oscillate between 4120 and 4220 [8][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations have reached a short - term agreement, which is positive for US soybeans. However, the good recent planting weather in the US has led to a short - term pull - back after the US soybean market hit a high. It is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean planting, import arrivals, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The volume of imported soybeans arriving in China reached a high in May. After May Day, domestic soybean inventories rebounded from a low level, but soybean meal inventories remained low. The soybean and soybean meal markets have returned to an oscillating pattern due to the impact of the Sino - US tariff war, showing a pattern of strong current situation and weak expectations [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supports the post - holiday price expectations. With the reduced pressure of the Sino - US tariff war, soybean meal has entered a short - term oscillating and weakening pattern [12]. - Domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventories remain low, and the strong spot prices support short - term price expectations. There is still a possibility of speculation on the weather in the US soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in the Sino - US tariff war. Soybean meal is expected to remain oscillating in the short term, waiting for the clarification of South American soybean yields and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - Positive factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans; low domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventories; uncertainties in the weather of US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Negative factors: High volume of imported soybeans arriving in June; the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. Soybeans - Positive factors: Cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans supports price expectations [14]. - Negative factors: Continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans; expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans, which suppresses price expectations [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal: Spot price in East China is 2830, with a basis of - 201, indicating a discount to the futures. Oil - mill soybean meal inventories are 38.25 tons, a 28.36% increase from last week and a 65.19% decrease from the same period last year. The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards. The main long positions have increased, and funds have flowed in [8]. - Soybeans: Spot price is 4160, with a basis of - 8, indicating a discount to the futures. Oil - mill soybean inventories are 610.29 tons, a 4.7% increase from last week and a 24.7% increase from the same period last year. The price is above the 20 - day moving average but moving downwards. The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed in [10]. 5. Position Data - Soybean Meal: The main long positions have increased, and funds have flowed in [8]. - Soybeans: The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed in [10]. Other Data - Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Data from 2015 to 2024 shows changes in harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [30]. - Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Data from 2015 to 2024 shows changes in harvest area, initial inventory, output, import volume, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [31]. - Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress: Information on the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina in different periods is provided [32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39]. - USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports: Data from November 2024 to May 2025 shows changes in harvest area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, exports, crushing, and soybean production in Brazil and Argentina [40].