原木期货日报-20250611

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The demand for logs in China shows a stable and slightly increasing trend this week, but there is still pressure on the arrival of goods in June due to the high willingness of traders to receive goods at low foreign - market prices in May. The spot market is weak and stable, and the weak - balance pattern in the fundamentals continues. The current futures price has rebounded, and there may be differences in the futures price under the logic of delivery cost after the 07 contract enters the delivery month. It is recommended to mainly observe on the single - side trading, and pay attention to the changes in the monthly spread and participate in the reverse spread trading as the main contract will shift to the 09 contract this month [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: The prices of log 2507 and log 2509 decreased by 0.13%, while the price of log 2511 remained unchanged. The 7 - 9, 9 - 11, and 7 - 11 spreads all decreased by 1.0, and the basis of 07 and 09 contracts increased by 1.0 [2] - Spot prices: The prices of various types of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged, and the foreign - market quotes also remained unchanged [2] - Cost: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate increased slightly, and the import theoretical cost increased by 0.73 yuan [2] Supply - Monthly supply: The port shipping volume increased by 39.0 (24.17%) to 200.3 million cubic meters, and the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 8.0 (13.79%) to 66.0 [2] Inventory - Weekly inventory: The total inventory of coniferous logs in China decreased by 2.0 ( - 0.59%) to 339.0 million cubic meters. The inventory in Shandong increased by 2.0 (1.06%) to 191.50 million cubic meters, while the inventory in Jiangsu decreased by 1.5 ( - 1.35%) to 111.98 million cubic meters [2][3] Demand - Weekly demand: The average daily outbound volume in China increased by 0.03 (0%) to 6.31 million cubic meters. The average daily outbound volume in Shandong increased by 0.07 (2%), and that in Jiangsu decreased by 0.01 (0%) [3]