印度股票策略：印度五只股票：即使在近期反弹后，对盈利的担忧依然存在

Market Sentiment and Support - Indian markets are positioned well amid global uncertainties, with Asia and GEM funds increasing their positions in India[1] - Domestic policy support is strong, with government capital expenditure reaching a record high in Q1 2025 and the central bank cutting benchmark rates by 50bps and cash reserve ratio by 100bps[2] Earnings Growth Outlook - Q1 2025 earnings for FTSE India (excluding commodities) showed a 10% year-on-year increase, a recovery from previous quarters[3] - Despite the positive Q1 results, a sustained recovery in earnings growth is expected to take several more quarters, with consensus estimates for 2025 earnings growth at 11%[4] Sector Performance - Strong growth was reported in industrials, healthcare, and telecom, while consumer discretionary saw a 14% EPS growth driven by retail and services[3] - FMCG companies faced challenges with weak demand and increased competition, leading to low single-digit growth in that sector[3] Investment Strategy - The report recommends five stocks: Godrej Consumer Products (GCPL), United Phosphorus Limited (UPL), GAIL, Ujjivan Small Finance Bank, and HDFC Life, focusing on those with good growth potential[5] - GCPL is noted for its innovation and market share gains in home insecticides, while UPL is expected to recover due to improved margins and lower debt[6] Valuation and Risks - The Sensex index target for the end of 2025 is set at 82,240, indicating a neutral stance on Indian equities from an Asian perspective[7] - Elevated valuations and concerns about growth outlook remain, despite recent market rebounds[5]