瑞达期货股指期货全景日报-20250611

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - A-share major indices generally rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3400 points. The three major indices rose and then fell. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets significantly declined. Most industry sectors rose, with non-ferrous metals and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sectors strengthening significantly, while the medicine, biology, communication, and beauty care sectors declined against the market. - Domestically, in terms of the economic fundamentals, on the price front, in May, the domestic CPI changed from an increase to a decrease month-on-month, and the year-on-year decline remained the same as last month. The year-on-year decline of PPI further widened, and the CPI - PPI gap widened compared to last month, indicating that future prices still face certain pressure. On the trade front, affected by tariff policies, the scale of China's import and export trade further shrank in May. On the policy front, on June 10th (UK local time), the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism entered its second day, starting in the morning and continuing after lunch. The market expects further relaxation of trade relations. - Overall, although the signs of further relaxation of China-US trade relations are beneficial to the market in the short term, domestic deflation pressure still exists, and imports and exports are weak under the impact of tariffs. The economic fundamentals are relatively pressured, limiting the upward space of the market. The market is currently in a policy vacuum period, with limited incremental funds, making it difficult to support the significant strengthening of large-cap blue-chip stocks with large market values. Technology stocks mainly composed of small and medium-cap stocks are currently undervalued and are expected to make up for the increase in the short term. - In terms of strategy, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see for unilateral trading, and for arbitrage, one can try to go long on IC/IM and short on IF/IH [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - Futures Contract Prices: The prices of IF, IH, IC, and IM main and sub-main contracts generally rose. For example, the IF main contract (2506) was at 3878.8, up 34.4; the IH main contract (2506) was at 2682.4, up 21.0; the IC main contract (2506) was at 5761.2, up 42.8; and the IM main contract (2506) was at 6144.0, up 38.4 [2]. - Futures Price Spreads: The spreads between different futures contracts showed various changes. For example, the IF - IH current - month contract spread was 1196.4, up 15.4; the IC - IF current - month contract spread was 1882.4, up 5.2; the IM - IC current - month contract spread was 382.8, down 12.8 [2]. - Futures Time - Spread: The time - spreads between different quarters and the current month of futures contracts also changed. For example, IF current - quarter minus current - month was - 66.6, up 0.6; IH current - quarter minus current - month was - 38.4, down 1.6; IC current - quarter minus current - month was - 182.8, unchanged; IM current - quarter minus current - month was - 256.6, up 1.6 [2]. - Futures Net Positions: The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased. For example, the IF top 20 net position was - 27,522.00, up 968.0; the IH top 20 net position was - 12,941.00, up 1318.0; the IC top 20 net position was - 6,184.00, up 973.0; the IM top 20 net position was - 35,743.00, up 2167.0 [2]. - Spot Prices and Basis: The spot prices of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all rose, and the basis of the corresponding futures main contracts also changed. For example, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was at 3894.63, up 29.2, and the IF main contract basis was - 15.8, up 8.6 [2]. 3.2 Market Sentiment Data - Market Trading Volume and Balance: The A - share trading volume decreased, with the daily trading volume at 12,866.77 billion yuan, down 1647.60 billion yuan. The margin trading balance increased, with the previous - trading - day balance at 18,169.95 billion yuan, up 8.68 billion yuan. The north - bound trading volume increased, with the previous - trading - day total at 1579.54 billion yuan, up 166.58 billion yuan [2]. - Fund Flows and Other Indicators: The main - force funds showed a net outflow, with a net outflow of 565.78 billion yuan yesterday and a decrease of 21.92 billion yuan today. The proportion of rising stocks increased, with the daily proportion at 63.03%, up 39.75 percentage points. The Shibor decreased slightly, with the daily rate at 1.361%, down 0.001 percentage point [2]. - Option - Related Data: The closing price of the IO at - the - money call option (2506) increased, with a closing price of 23.80, up 9.80. The implied volatility of the IO at - the - money call option decreased, at 12.25%, down 0.12 percentage points. The closing price of the IO at - the - money put option (2506) decreased, at 42.40, down 24.40. The implied volatility of the IO at - the - money put option increased, at 12.25%, up 0.66 percentage points [2]. 3.3 Industry News - Economic Data: In May, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, the same as the previous month, and decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, changing from an increase to a decrease. PPI decreased by 3.3% year - on - year, with the decline further widening compared to the previous month. In the first five months of 2025, China's total import and export value of goods trade was 17.94 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In May, China's total import and export value of goods trade was 3.81 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.7%, but the scale further shrank under the impact of tariff policies [2]. - Policy News: On June 10th (UK local time), the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism entered its second day, starting in the morning and continuing after lunch [2].