瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250611

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries is on a downward trend. The large number of warehouse receipts has brought significant delivery pressure to the futures market. Although the futures price rose today and the number of call options continued to increase, considering the upcoming contract change of the short - term 07 contract and the subsequent rebound due to closing positions, a medium - to - long - term short - selling strategy is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 7,560 yuan/ton, the main contract position is 155,627 lots (a decrease of 21,965 lots), the net position of the top 20 is - 11,934 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 59,252 lots (a decrease of 927 lots). The price difference between the July - August contracts is 5 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 8,150 yuan/ton, the average price of 421 silicon is 8,700 yuan/ton, the basis of the Si main contract is - 145 yuan/ton, and the DMC spot price is 11,120 yuan/ton (a decrease of 120 yuan/ton) [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, the average price of petroleum coke is 1,760 yuan/ton, the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, the average price of wood chips is 540 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 299,700 tons (a decrease of 36,050 tons), the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 587,000 tons (a decrease of 2,000 tons), the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, and the monthly export volume is 52,919.65 tons (a decrease of 12,197.89 tons) [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 38,700 tons (a decrease of 200 tons), the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market is 20,200 yuan/ton, the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg, the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.28 US dollars/kg, the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 16,555.02 tons (a decrease of 1,621.87 tons), the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 58.67% (a decrease of 0.53%), the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.528 million tons (a decrease of 127,000 tons), and the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons (a decrease of 337.93 tons) [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In 2024, Hesheng Silicon Industry achieved an operating income of 26.692 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.41%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company's shareholders of 1.74 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 33.6%. In the first quarter of this year, affected by the decline in the prices of core products, the overall performance of Hesheng Silicon Industry decreased compared with the same period, but it remained profitable [2]. 3.7 Supply - Side Analysis - As the wet season approaches, Yunnan, Sichuan and other places are gradually entering the wet season, showing an advantage in electricity price costs. However, judging from the operating rate and output data, the south - western region has no intention to resume work. Although the output has increased slightly, it is still at a low level [2]. 3.8 Downstream Industry Analysis - Organic Silicon: The spot price of the organic silicon market remained flat. Enterprises adopted a production - cut strategy to support prices, achieving some results, but production cuts will drag down the demand for industrial silicon [2]. - Polysilicon: Currently, mainstream enterprises are cutting production, and the industry as a whole is operating at a reduced load, leading to a decline in the demand for industrial silicon. The prices of downstream silicon wafers and solar cells have started to decline, and further polysilicon production cuts are expected, which will also drag down the demand for industrial silicon [2]. - Aluminum Alloy: There is some demand support from the terminal consumer electronics and automotive industries, but enterprises mostly replenish inventory as needed. Inventory has increased, prices have weakened, and the industry is in a state of passive de - stocking, with limited ability to drive the demand for industrial silicon [2].