瑞达期货多晶硅产业日报-20250611

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The polysilicon market price is temporarily stable, but the market is expected to continue consolidating with a long - term high - short strategy recommended. The supply side has all manufacturers operating at reduced loads, and the expectation of new capacity launch is increasing. Most enterprises are in the stage of losing cash cost, and some have suspended the production line of delivery products. The demand side is relatively weak, with downstream photovoltaic component production schedules reduced, silicon wafer enterprises' self - discipline quotas lowered, and cell enterprises having production reduction plans. Terminal market has strong wait - and - see sentiment. Policy factors also reduce the demand for polysilicon, and overseas market demand is uncertain due to macro - economic and trade frictions. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level, suppressing market prices [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 34,255 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 300 yuan/ton; the 07 - 08 contract spread is 1,305 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 10 yuan/ton; the main position volume is 60,199 lots, with a daily decrease of 2,509 lots; the polysilicon - industrial silicon spread is 26,695 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 155 yuan/ton [2] Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 36,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis is 2,545 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 150 yuan/ton; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.28 US dollars/kg, unchanged. The average prices of cauliflower, dense, and re - feeding polysilicon are 29 yuan/kg, 31.5 yuan/kg, and 32.5 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 7,560 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 145 yuan/ton; the spot price is 8,150 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons. The monthly output is 299,700 tons, a decrease of 36,050 tons; the total social inventory is 58.7 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 96,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 954 tons, a decrease of 1,952 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 5.01 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly average import price is 2.19 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.14 US dollars/ton [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 71,928,000 kilowatts, a decrease of 6,516,000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, with an increase of 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 83,789,320 units, a decrease of 11,583,800 units; the monthly import volume is 20,120,440 units, an increase of 10,274,320 units; the monthly average import price is 0.29 US dollars/unit, an increase of 0.02 US dollars/unit. The weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 22.29, unchanged [2] Industry News - As of June 10, the mainstream market prices of P - type polysilicon cauliflower, N - type dense, N - type re - feeding, N - type granular silicon, and N - type polysilicon are 31 yuan/kg, 34 yuan/kg, 37.5 yuan/kg, 34 yuan/kg, and 34.5 yuan/kg respectively, all temporarily stable. The first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London on June 9 and continued on June 10 [2] Key Focus - There is no news today. Since June 1, newly installed photovoltaics need to enter the electricity spot market, which reduces the rate of return and suppresses polysilicon demand. The macro - economic environment and international trade frictions also lead to uncertainty in overseas demand, further suppressing demand growth [2]