瑞达期货棉花（纱）产业日报-20250611

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The easing of Sino - US trade relations boosts market optimism about trade prospects, causing prices to be short - term volatile and slightly stronger. However, it is the consumption off - season in the textile industry, with slow inventory reduction and limited upside potential [2]. - The textile industry shows characteristics of the consumption off - season. New orders are poor, summer orders have limited growth, and most are short - term, small - scale orders. Some enterprises reduce shifts, and the overall operating rate is slowly decreasing. Some spinning mills are in a state of inventory accumulation, with poor profit margins, which affects their raw material procurement willingness [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 13,540 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price is 19,750 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [2]. - Cotton futures' top 20 net positions are - 42,217 lots, down 4,474 lots; cotton yarn futures' top 20 net positions are - 58 lots, down 123 lots [2]. - Cotton main contract positions are 545,791 lots, up 7,234 lots; cotton yarn main contract positions are 18,448 lots, up 2,365 lots [2]. - Cotton warehouse receipts are 10,794 sheets, down 21 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 2 sheets, unchanged [2]. - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 14,784 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 20,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 现货市场 - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,656 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 21,899 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan [2]. - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) is 14,389 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count) is 23,776 yuan/ton, up 92 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6160 thousand tons, up 540 thousand tons [2]. - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,516 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan; the industrial inventory of cotton nationwide is 833 thousand tons, down 31 thousand tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of cotton is 60 thousand tons, down 10 thousand tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 120 thousand tons, down 10 thousand tons [2]. - The daily profit of imported cotton is 284 yuan/ton, up 103 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 4152.6 thousand tons, down 687 thousand tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly yarn inventory days are 21.12 days, up 0.14 days; the monthly inventory days of grey cloth are 32.54 days, up 1.37 days [2]. - The monthly cloth output is 2.72 billion meters, down 0.159 billion meters; the monthly yarn output is 1987 thousand tons, down 183.5 thousand tons [2]. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1,160,655.8 thousand US dollars, up 25,528.3 thousand US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1,257,966.4 thousand US dollars, up 52,872.6 thousand US dollars [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 8.76%, up 1.09%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options is 8.77%, up 1.06% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 6.67%, down 3.36%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 12.69%, up 0.01% [2]. Industry News - As of June 6, 2025, the national commercial inventory of cotton is 3,209.2 thousand tons, down 128.7 thousand tons (a decrease of 3.86%) from last week. Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang is 2,303 thousand tons, down 108.2 thousand tons (a decrease of 4.49%) week - on - week; the commercial cotton in the inland area is 448.5 thousand tons, down 4.6 thousand tons (a decrease of 1.02%) week - on - week [2]. - As of the week of June 8, 2025, the US cotton sowing is 76% complete, 10% higher than the previous week, 3% lower than the same period last year, and 4% lower than the five - year average. The excellent - good rate is 49%, the same as the previous week and 7% lower than the same period last year. The US weather is generally favorable for crop growth [2].