策略日报：沪指站上3400-20250611

Group 1: Major Asset Tracking - The bond market shows a comprehensive rise, with long-term bonds outperforming short-term ones. The weak fundamentals are expected to limit the height of the rise, suggesting that future volatility may lead to downward adjustments, benefiting the bond market from inflows of risk-averse capital [14][6] Group 2: A-Share Market - The Shanghai Composite Index has returned to 3400, with the ChiNext Index rising over 1%. The total market turnover was 1.28 trillion, a decrease of 0.17 trillion from the previous day, with over 3000 stocks rising. Given the weak fundamentals, the probability of a bull market driven by volume is low, and future market movements are likely to amplify volatility downward [17][2] - Investors are advised to take profits on some positions and shift to lower-yielding sectors such as dividends, agriculture, and technology, which are considered better options [18][17] Group 3: U.S. Stock Market - The Dow Jones rose by 0.25%, the Nasdaq by 0.63%, and the S&P 500 by 0.55%. The rising U.S. Treasury yields are seen as a looming threat over major assets, with potential buying opportunities emerging post-recession narratives. The long-term U.S. Treasury issuance has cooled, with rates briefly exceeding 5% [22][6] - The U.S. stock market is currently in a phase of head-and-shoulders consolidation, suggesting that investors should avoid short-term positions and wait for better buying opportunities [22][6] Group 4: Foreign Exchange Market - The onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.1859, a decrease of 27 basis points from the previous close. The RMB has appreciated significantly due to unexpectedly positive impacts from U.S.-China trade relations. The offshore RMB shows strong technical signs, with the previous high of 7.42 likely marking the peak of this depreciation cycle. The RMB is expected to rise to around 7.1 [26][6] Group 5: Commodity Market - The Wenhua Commodity Index increased by 0.07%, with coal, steel, and non-ferrous metals leading the gains, while oils and ferroalloys lagged. The overall technical structure of the Wenhua Commodity Index remains in a bearish trend, suggesting a cautious approach [31][6]