Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex trend with different performances in various sectors. In the stock index futures market, the major financial sector leads the upward movement, and the stock index rebounds comprehensively. In the bond market, the short - term uncertainty of treasury bond futures weakens, and the trend is relatively strong. In the precious metals market, gold rises due to factors such as lower - than - expected US inflation and Middle - East geopolitical tensions. In the commodity futures market, different metals and agricultural products have their own supply - demand and price trends [2][5][8]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market Situation: On Wednesday, major indices opened higher and closed higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.52% to 3402.32 points. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose, with IF2506 and IH2506 rising 0.89% and 0.79% respectively, and IC2506 and IM2506 rising 0.75% and 0.83% respectively. The large - financial sector strengthened, and the basic metals, insurance, and automobile sectors led the gains, while the daily chemical, port, and pharmaceutical sectors declined [2][3]. - News: In domestic news, the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism's first meeting made progress. Overseas, the latest US inflation data remained moderate, with the May CPI rising 2.4% year - on - year and 0.1% month - on - month [3]. - Operation Suggestion: The index has stable support below but faces pressure to break through above. It is recommended to sell put options on the CSI 1000 index with an exercise price around 5800 in July to collect option premiums [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market Performance: Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose 0.23%, 0.06%, 0.07%, and 0.02% respectively. The yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined [5]. - Funding: The central bank conducted 1640 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on June 11, with an operating rate of 1.40%. The net withdrawal on the day was 509 billion yuan. The short - term inter - bank market interest rate was slightly affected, and the long - term capital interest rate was slightly higher [5][6]. - Policy: The Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism's first meeting reached a framework consensus. - Operation Suggestion: The short - term uncertainty of treasury bond futures weakens. If there are no sudden changes in trade negotiations this week, the treasury bond futures may continue to fluctuate strongly. In the medium - to - long - term, pay attention to the capital situation in mid - to - late June. Unilateral strategy: appropriately allocate long positions on dips. For the spot - futures strategy, pay attention to the TS2509 contract's positive arbitrage strategy. For the curve strategy, there is more room to steepen the curve in the medium - term [6][7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market Review: US inflation growth was lower than expected, and Trump continued to call on the Fed to cut interest rates. The Middle - East situation heated up, driving up the price of gold. The international gold price rose 0.97% to $3355.005 per ounce, while the international silver price showed a different trend, closing at $36.215 per ounce with a 0.85% increase [9][11]. - Outlook: In the context of de - dollarization, the long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged. Currently, trade negotiations and geopolitical conflicts disturb the market. Gold is expected to fluctuate within the range of $3200 - $3400 per ounce in the short - term. It is recommended to continuously sell out - of - the - money gold option straddles to earn time value. For silver, pay attention to the flow of speculative funds [11]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Spot Quotes: As of June 11, the spot quotes of major shipping companies showed different ranges. The SCFIS European line index rose 0.5% as of June 2, and the SCFI composite index rose 30.68% as of May 30 [13]. - Fundamentals: As of June 10, the global container shipping capacity increased by 8.4% year - on - year. The demand in the eurozone and the US showed certain trends in the manufacturing and service sectors [14]. - Logic: The futures market fluctuated. The 90 - day tariff freeze period will be extended, which is beneficial to the 08 contract. If shipping companies raise spot prices, the 08 contract may rise. - Operation Suggestion: Consider buying the main contract on dips, with the price expected to fluctuate between 1900 - 2200 [14]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: As of June 11, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper and SMM Guangdong electrolytic copper increased, but the spot trading weakened due to high prices [15]. - Macro: The spread between COMEX and LME widened again, and the US continued to replenish copper stocks, which boosted copper prices [15]. - Supply: The supply of copper concentrate is expected to be restricted, and the production of refined copper in May increased. It is expected to decrease slightly in June [16]. - Demand: The processing and terminal demand of copper showed different trends. The short - term domestic demand has resilience, but the "rush - to - export" demand may lead to pressure on the demand side in Q3 [17]. - Inventory: COMEX inventory continued to increase, while domestic inventory decreased slightly [17]. - Logic: The combination of "strong reality + weak expectation" makes the copper price fluctuate in the short - term. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 77000 - 80000 [18]. Zinc - Spot: On June 11, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots increased, but the spot trading was mediocre [18]. - Supply: The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, and the production of refined zinc in May decreased slightly and is expected to increase in June [19][20]. - Demand: The initial consumption of zinc showed a slight recovery, but the terminal demand was expected to be weak after the peak season [21]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory increased, while LME inventory decreased slightly [22]. - Logic: In the medium - to - long - term, zinc is in a supply - loose cycle. The zinc price may maintain a high - level shock or decline. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 21000 - 23000 [22]. Tin - Spot: On June 11, the price of SMM 1 tin increased, and the spot premium remained unchanged. The actual trading was light [23]. - Supply: The supply recovery progress was slow, and the supply of tin ore was tight. The ban on tin ore transportation in Thailand may affect the domestic supply [23][25]. - Demand and Inventory: The solder开工 rate increased slightly in April, but the demand is expected to be weak in the future. The inventory decreased [24]. - Logic: The slow supply recovery and improved macro - sentiment drive up the tin price, but the demand is expected to be weak. - Operation Suggestion: Adopt a short - selling strategy after the sentiment stabilizes [25]. Nickel - Spot: As of June 11, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel decreased slightly, while the average price of imported nickel increased slightly [26]. - Supply: The production of refined nickel is at a relatively high level, and the monthly production is expected to decline slightly [26]. - Demand: The demand for electroplating and alloys is relatively stable, but the demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate is weak [26]. - Inventory: Overseas inventory remained high, while domestic social inventory decreased slightly [27]. - Logic: The macro - situation is temporarily stable, and the cost support of refined nickel is slightly loose. The medium - term supply is loose, and the short - term market lacks driving force. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 118000 - 126000 [28]. Stainless Steel - Spot: As of June 11, the price of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel increased slightly, and the basis decreased [29]. - Raw Materials: The supply of nickel ore was still tight, the price of nickel iron was weak and stable, and the price of chrome iron was weak [29][30]. - Supply: The production of stainless steel in June is expected to be slightly higher than that in May, and the overall supply is in an oversupply pattern [30]. - Inventory: Social inventory decreased, and the futures inventory decreased [30]. - Logic: The stainless steel market is affected by the cost and demand. The short - term supply - demand contradiction still exists, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 12400 - 13000 [31]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot: As of June 11, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased slightly, while the price of lithium hydroxide decreased slightly [31]. - Supply: The supply of lithium carbonate is still at a relatively high level, and the supply pressure is still obvious [32]. - Demand: The demand for lithium carbonate is relatively stable, but the downstream is entering the off - season, and the demand may face pressure [32]. - Inventory: The overall inventory of lithium carbonate increased last week, with the upstream and trading inventory increasing and the downstream inventory decreasing [33]. - Logic: The futures price of lithium carbonate rose due to market sentiment, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The short - term market still has pressure. - Operation Suggestion: Observe the performance around 62,000 yuan first [34][35]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: The spot price of steel was stable with a slight increase, and the basis weakened [36]. - Supply: The steel production decreased slightly from the high level, and the production of hot - rolled coils increased [36]. - Demand: The apparent demand for steel decreased, affected by the off - season and tariffs [37]. - Inventory: The steel inventory was approaching the inflection point of accumulation, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased [38]. - Cost and Profit: The cost support of steel was weak, and the profit of different steel products varied [39]. - View: The steel price rebounded recently, but the overall demand is expected to be weak. Consider short - selling on rebounds [40]. Iron Ore - Spot: The price of mainstream iron ore powder decreased slightly [41]. - Futures: The iron ore futures price decreased slightly [41]. - Basis: The basis of PB powder was 57 yuan per ton [41]. - Demand: The daily average pig iron production decreased slightly, and the blast furnace operating rate decreased [41]. - Supply: The global iron ore shipment increased, and the arrival volume at Chinese ports increased [41][42]. - Inventory: The port inventory of iron ore decreased, and the steel mill inventory decreased [42]. - View: The short - term iron ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the medium - to - long - term is bearish [42]. Coking Coal - Futures and Spot: The coking coal futures price fluctuated strongly, while the spot price was weak [43][45]. - Supply: The domestic coal mine production decreased slightly, and the Mongolian coal price decline slowed down [45]. - Demand: The coking plant operating rate decreased slightly, and the downstream demand still had some resilience [44][46]. - Inventory: The coal mine inventory increased, and the downstream inventory was at a medium level [44][46]. - View: The coking coal futures price is expected to rebound, but the spot fundamentals are lagging. Adopt an interval operation strategy [45][46]. Coke - Futures and Spot: The coke futures price fluctuated strongly, while the spot price was weak [47][48]. - Supply: The production of coke decreased slightly, affected by environmental protection [48]. - Demand: The demand for coke decreased slightly, and the blast furnace operating rate continued to decline [48]. - Inventory: The coking plant inventory increased, the port inventory decreased, and the steel mill inventory decreased [48]. - View: The coke futures price is expected to rebound, but the spot fundamentals are still loose. Adopt an interval operation strategy [48]. Ferrosilicon - Spot: The price of ferrosilicon in the main production areas was stable [49]. - Futures: The ferrosilicon futures price was stable [49]. - Cost and Profit: The cost of ferrosilicon was difficult to stabilize, and the profit was negative [49][50]. - Supply: The production of ferrosilicon increased, mainly due to the resumption of production in Ningxia [50]. - Demand: The demand for ferrosilicon in steelmaking was expected to decline slightly in June, and the non - steel demand was weak [50]. - View: The supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon increased, and the price is expected to follow the coal price [50]. Manganese Silicon - Spot: The price of manganese silicon in the main production areas was stable [51]. - Futures: The manganese silicon futures price decreased slightly [51]. - Cost: The cost of manganese silicon was relatively high, and the profit was negative [51]. - Supply: The production of manganese silicon increased slightly, and the supply pressure still existed [52]. - Demand: The demand for manganese silicon in steelmaking decreased slightly, and the overall demand was relatively stable [53][54]. - View: The supply pressure of manganese silicon still exists, and the price is expected to follow the coal price [55]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - Spot Market: The price of domestic soybean meal increased slightly, and the trading volume increased significantly. The price of rapeseed meal increased slightly, and the trading volume was 4200 tons [56]. - Fundamentals: The US may have heavy rainfall, which may affect soybean production. Brazil's soybean production and export are expected to be high [56][57]. - Market Outlook: The Sino - US trade negotiation may ease the market sentiment, and the domestic soybean meal price is expected to fluctuate strongly, but be cautious about chasing the rise [57]. Live Pigs - Spot Situation: The spot price of live pigs fluctuated slightly, with different trends in different regions [58][59]. - Market Data: The profit of live pig breeding varied by scale, and the secondary fattening sales ratio decreased [59]. - Market Outlook: The live pig market supply - demand situation improved slightly, but the demand was weak due to hot weather. The market is expected to fluctuate [59]. Corn - Spot Price: The price of corn in the northeast and north - central regions increased slightly, and the port price also increased [60]. - Fundamentals: The inventory of corn in Guangdong Port decreased, and the inventory in the northern four ports decreased [60][61]. - Market Outlook: The price of corn is expected to fluctuate at a high level, affected by the supply - demand situation and the wheat price [61]. Sugar - Market Analysis: The global sugar supply is expected to be loose, and the international sugar price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The domestic sugar price is supported by high sales and low inventory, and is expected to fluctuate at a low level [62].
广发早知道：汇总版-20250612
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-06-12 01:05