建信期货聚烯烃日报-20250612

Group 1: Report Information - The report is a daily report on the polyolefin industry dated June 12, 2025 [1] - The energy and chemical research team includes researchers for polyolefins, crude oil fuel oil, PTA, MEG, urea, industrial silicon, pulp, and glass soda ash [2] Group 2: Market Quotes Futures Market Quotes | Variety | Opening Price (yuan/ton) | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Highest Price (yuan/ton) | Lowest Price (yuan/ton) | Change (yuan/ton) | Change Rate | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2601 | 7080 | 7075 | 7096 | 7060 | 3 | 0.04 | 111392 | -1662 | | Plastic 2605 | 7078 | 7066 | 7090 | 7064 | 0 | 0.00 | 704 | 39 | | Plastic 2509 | 7105 | 7102 | 7124 | 7085 | 3 | 0.04 | 536103 | 5141 | | PP2601 | 6898 | 6908 | 6929 | 6889 | 10 | 0.14 | 78596 | 151 | | PP2605 | 6904 | 6903 | 6923 | 6891 | 2 | 0.03 | 709 | 105 | | PP2509 | 6947 | 6960 | 6983 | 6935 | 19 | 0.27 | 501412 | -10063 | [3] Market Analysis - L2509 of linear low - density polyethylene opened higher, fluctuated during the session, and closed up at 7102 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (0.04%), with a trading volume of 250,000 lots and an increase in open interest of 5141 to 536,103 lots - PP rose in the afternoon, reaching 6982 yuan/ton and then falling back. The main contract closed at 6960 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan, a gain of 0.27%, with open interest decreasing by 10,063 lots to 501,400 lots - The warming of linear and PP futures boosted the market atmosphere. As some ex - factory prices were adjusted, traders raised their quotes, and end - users made moderate restocking [4] Group 3: Industry News - On June 11, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 830,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from the previous working day, a decline of 2.92%. The inventory in the same period last year was 810,000 tons - Most PP market prices were stable, with some slightly increasing. Overall trading was limited. The mainstream price of North China drawing materials in the morning was 7000 - 7140 yuan/ton, in East China was 7000 - 7180 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7050 - 7230 yuan/ton - Some PE market prices increased. In North China, some linear PE rose 10 - 50 yuan/ton, some high - pressure PE rose 50 yuan/ton, and low - pressure PE had individual changes of 20 - 50 yuan/ton; in East China, high - pressure and low - pressure PE partially increased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton, and linear PE had individual changes of 10 - 100 yuan/ton; in South China, linear PE partially rose 10 - 80 yuan/ton, low - pressure PE had individual changes of 20 - 50 yuan/ton, and high - pressure PE partially rose 20 - 100 yuan/ton. The price of LLDPE in North China was 7070 - 7300 yuan/ton, in East China was 7120 - 7600 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7280 - 7550 yuan/ton [5] Group 4: Core Viewpoint - Currently, the loss of upstream plant maintenance is still at a high level. According to the released maintenance plans, the planned maintenance volume after June will decline month - on - month, and the bullish support from the supply reduction caused by maintenance will weaken. Coupled with the new capacity expansion plan, the pressure on the supply side will rise again - Demand is under double pressure from seasonal weakness and unclear expectations of tariff policies - The cost side is supported by the peak fuel consumption season in the United States, with a slight increase in cost support. However, the supply - demand contradiction in polyolefins still exists, and the rebound space is limited [4]