建信期货油脂日报-20250612

Report Overview - Industry: Oil and fat [1] - Date: June 12, 2025 [2] Core Views - Palm oil led the decline in the oil and fat sector. The main contract P2509 decreased with increasing positions, and the market bearish sentiment was strong. The price may further decline, and attention should be paid to the support around 7800. The latest MPOB data showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in May rose to the highest level in 8 months. Although the strong exports offset part of the growth in production and imports, the market expected the palm oil inventory to rise above 2 million tons, so the report was slightly positive for palm oil. The export data in the first 10 days in Malaysia were good, which supported the market, but the future increase in production and inventory would bring pressure, and the medium - and long - term price center would move down [8]. - For rapeseed oil, although China and Canada restarted negotiations, there were few rapeseed purchases after June - July. The domestic spot and basis were strong, and the domestic crushing profit deteriorated. The support at the 9000 level was strong in the short term. Later, focus on the results of China - Canada negotiations and the growing weather of new - season rapeseed in Canada [8]. - The abundant soybean supply in Brazil continued to pressure the market. Pay attention to the recent soybean import and crushing situation. The improvement of the supply situation might bring pressure to soybean oils. As the factory's soybean oil inventory continued to increase, the spot basis quotation was still under pressure, which would drag down the market, and it was expected to decline in shock. One could continuously short out - of - the - money call options. In the short term, the overall supply of oils and fats was sufficient, lacking upward drivers [8]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: Dongguan rapeseed oil traders' quotes: Dongguan triple - pressed rapeseed oil 09 + 60 (June), first - pressed rapeseed oil 09 + 240 (June). The basis price of soybean oil in the East China market: first - grade soybean oil, spot: Y2509+200; August - September: Y2509+230; October - January: Y2601+280. The price of 24 - degree palm oil at East China ports was P09 + 440 yuan/ton (limited to road transport), P09 + 380 yuan/ton for June shipment, and P09 + 400 yuan/ton for July shipment. The price of 24 - degree palm oil at Dongguan factories was 09+320 [7]. - Operation Suggestions: Short out - of - the - money call options for soybean oils [8]. 2. Industry News - Independent inspection agency AmSpec data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 - 10 were 327,355 tons, an increase of 8.1% compared to May 1 - 10 [10]. - Shipping survey agency ITS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 - 10 were 371,600 tons, an increase of 26.4% compared to May 1 - 10. Exports to China were 13,800 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons compared to the previous week [10]. - Shipping survey agency SGS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 - 10 were 285,578 tons, an increase of 32.7% compared to May 1 - 10. Exports to China were 10,800 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons compared to the same period last month [15]. - As of June 10, the inventory of imported soybeans at major ports was about 6 million tons, compared with 7.5 million tons in the same period last year and a five - year average of 7 million tons. The cumulative arrival in this month was 3.5 million tons. According to data from China Grain and Oil Business Network, the arrival of imported soybeans in June 2025 was 10.5 million tons, an increase of 400,000 tons compared to the previous month's forecast of 10.1 million tons, a month - on - month change of 4.36%, and an increase of 600,000 tons compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year change of 5.70% [15]. 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts showing price, basis, spread, and exchange rate data of various oils and fats, including East China's third - grade rapeseed oil spot price, fourth - grade soybean oil spot price, South China's 24 - degree palm oil spot price, palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil basis changes, P1 - 5, P5 - 9, P9 - 1 spreads, and the exchange rates of US dollar against Malaysian ringgit and Chinese yuan [13][14][16]