纯碱、玻璃日报-20250612

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soda ash futures market is expected to be mainly in a low - level oscillation due to prominent supply - demand contradictions, with supply rising, demand falling, and inventory accumulation. The long - term pattern is one of surplus, and the weak demand from the construction glass sector, affected by the real - estate market, restricts price increases [8]. - The glass futures market is also predicted to maintain a low - level oscillation in the short term. Factors such as the seasonal weakness in demand during the traditional rainy season, high mid - stream inventory, slow capacity reduction, and the lack of substantial improvement in the domestic real - estate completion stage contribute to this outlook [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Soda Ash Market - On June 11, the main soda ash futures contract SA509 oscillated downward, closing at 1,202 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or 0.08%, with a daily increase in positions of 48,195 lots [7]. - As of June 5, the weekly soda ash production in China rebounded to 704,100 tons, a 2.78% increase from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate dropped to 80.76%, a 2.19% increase. The enterprise shipment volume was 701,400 tons, a 4.90% decrease, and the weekly enterprise inventory remained at 1.627 million tons, showing a slight accumulation [8]. - Glass Market - The demand for glass is significantly affected by seasonal factors. During the current rainy season, construction activities are restricted, leading to a continuous weakening of terminal demand. The high mid - stream inventory and slow capacity reduction process may lead to further inventory accumulation [9]. - The domestic real - estate completion stage has not shown substantial improvement, and although there are expectations for incremental policies, they are unlikely to fundamentally reverse the supply - demand imbalance [9][10]. 3.2 Data Overview - The report presents various data charts, including the price trends of active contracts for soda ash and glass, soda ash weekly production, soda ash enterprise inventory, the market price of heavy soda ash in Central China, and flat glass production [12][15][17].