大越期货纯碱早报-20250612

Group 1: Report Core View - The fundamental situation of soda ash shows strong supply and weak demand. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level. The supply has declined from a high level, the improvement in terminal demand is limited, and the inventory, although continuously decreasing, is still at a high level in the same period. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily View - Fundamentals: Alkali plant maintenance is gradually recovering, supply has declined from a high level and is gradually stabilizing. The daily melting volume of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is stable, terminal demand is average, and the inventory of soda ash plants has declined but is still at a historical high; bearish [2] - Basis: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,244 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2509 is 1,202 yuan/ton, and the basis is 42 yuan. The futures price is at a discount to the spot price; bullish [2] - Inventory: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.627 million tons, an increase of 0.17% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average; bearish [2] - Disk: The price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward; bearish [2] - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [2] - Expectation: Due to the strong supply and weak demand in the soda ash market, it is expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level in the short - term [2] 2. Influencing Factors - Bullish: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [3] - Bearish: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry output is at a historical high in the same period. The cold - repair of downstream float glass for heavy - quality soda ash is at a high level, and the daily melting volume is continuously decreasing, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [4] 3. Soda Ash Futures Market | Market | Main Contract Closing Price | Low - end Price of Heavy - Quality Soda Ash in Shahe | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous | 1,208 yuan/ton | 1,244 yuan/ton | 36 yuan | | Current | 1,202 yuan/ton | 1,244 yuan/ton | 42 yuan | | Change | - 0.50% | 0.00% | 16.67% | [6] 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,244 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12] 5. Fundamentals - Supply - Production Profit: The profit of the joint - alkali method for heavy - quality soda ash in East China is 86 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali method for heavy - quality soda ash in North China is - 10.10 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low in the same period [15] - Operating Rate and Production Volume: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 80.76%, and the operating rate is expected to stabilize and recover. The weekly production volume of soda ash is 704,100 tons, of which heavy - quality soda ash is 382,200 tons, and the production volume has declined from a historical high [18][20] - Capacity Changes: From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant expansions in soda ash production capacity. In 2023, the total new production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; and the planned new production capacity in 2025 is 7.5 million tons, with an actual expected production of 1 million tons [21] 6. Fundamentals - Demand - Sales - to - Production Ratio: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 107.66% [24] - Downstream Demand: - Float Glass: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 156,800 tons, and the operating rate of 75.53% is continuously declining, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [27] - Photovoltaic Glass: The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 98,700 tons, and production has stabilized [30] 7. Fundamentals - Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.627 million tons, of which heavy - quality soda ash is 837,000 tons, and the inventory is at a historical high in the same period [33] 8. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate. In general, the industry has experienced fluctuations in supply and demand, with some years having a supply surplus and others having a supply shortage [34]