大越期货PTA、MEG早报-20250612

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level, and there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation at the raw material end. After the market rebounds, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10]. - For PTA, the supply and demand support for PTA is weakening due to the restart of previously shut - down units and the reduction of downstream polyester load. The spot price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the basis may decline later [5]. - For MEG, it is expected that the port inventory will decline significantly after the Dragon Boat Festival, and the supply - demand structure is benign in the medium and short term, which supports the price [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day Review No relevant content provided. 3.2. Daily Tips - PTA - Fundamental: The PTA futures fluctuated weakly yesterday, the spot market negotiation atmosphere was okay, the spot basis was strong, and there were a small number of polyester factory purchases. The mainstream spot basis today is at 09 + 218 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4820, the basis of the 09 contract is 200, and the futures is at a discount [5]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 4.02 days, a decrease of 0.07 days compared to the previous period [5]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [5]. - Main position: The net long position is decreasing [5]. - Expectation: The supply - demand support for PTA is weakening. The spot price will fluctuate weakly, and the basis may decline later. Attention should be paid to the new device production progress and downstream polyester load changes [5]. - MEG - Fundamental: On Wednesday, the MEG price fluctuated widely, and the basis weakened. The spot basis weakened significantly in the afternoon, and the spot was traded at a premium of 85 - 88 yuan/ton to the 09 contract at the end of the session [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 4375, the basis of the 09 contract is 90, and the futures is at a discount [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 59.7 tons, an increase of 2.33 tons compared to the previous period [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [7]. - Main position: The main net short position is decreasing [7]. - Expectation: It is expected that the port inventory will decline significantly after the Dragon Boat Festival, and the supply - demand structure is benign in the medium and short term, which supports the price [6]. 3.3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4. Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Presents the PTA supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including capacity, production, consumption, inventory, etc. [11] - MEG Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Shows the MEG supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including production, consumption, port inventory, etc. [12] - Price Data: Provides price changes of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, polyester filaments, and short - fibers on June 11, 2025, compared to June 10, 2025, as well as profit data [13] 3.5. Impact Factor Summary - Positive Factors: The maintenance season of raw materials such as PTA and MEG has led to supply contraction, and the de - stocking expectation in the second quarter exceeds 500,000 tons, which supports the price rebound [8]. - Negative Factors: The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has imposed taxes on polyester products since 2025, increasing export costs by 8% - 12%. The average domestic polyester operating rate is 85%, with some small and medium - sized enterprises below 70%. Low - end over - capacity has led to fierce price competition, and the inventory days of filaments and short - fibers are approaching historical highs [9].