大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250612

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For LLDPE, the cost side has recent support, but there are new capacity releases and weak demand. The market is expected to be volatile today due to the cost - demand game and tariff policy uncertainties [4][5]. - For PP, the cost side has recent support, but overall demand is weak. The market is also expected to be volatile today considering the cost - demand game and tariff policy uncertainties [6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Analysis - Fundamentals: In May, the official PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 from April, while the Caixin PMI was 48.3%, down 2.1 from April. The situation of China - US tariffs has eased, but the final negotiation result remains uncertain. Recently, crude oil and coal prices have rebounded, supporting the cost side. It is the off - season for agricultural films, most factories are shut down, and there is still pressure from new capacity. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery goods is 7180 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 78, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.1%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 57.6 tons (+3.6), showing a neutral situation [4]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, suggesting a bearish trend [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, also indicating a bearish trend [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile. With cost support, off - season demand, high inventory, and new capacity pressure, the PE market is likely to move sideways today [4]. PP Analysis - Fundamentals: In May, the official PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 from April, and the Caixin PMI was 48.3%, down 2.1 from April. The China - US tariff situation has eased, but the final result is uncertain. Recently, crude oil and coal prices have rebounded, supporting the cost side. Downstream demand is mainly for immediate needs, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak. The current spot price of PP delivery goods is 7150 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 190, with a premium - discount ratio of 2.7%, showing a bullish signal [6]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 60.5 tons (+5.2), indicating a neutral situation [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, suggesting a bearish trend [6]. - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is long, and the long position is decreasing, indicating a bullish trend [6]. - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile. With cost support, weak overall demand, and high industrial inventory, the PP market is likely to move sideways today [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Tables - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15].