贵金属早报-20250612

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, along with lower - than - expected US CPI data, have led to increased expectations of interest rate cuts, causing gold prices to rise. Silver prices initially declined but then rebounded slightly following gold prices. The market is influenced by factors such as geopolitical conflicts and interest rate cut expectations [4][6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The US CPI data was lower than expected, and the Middle East situation was tense. The US dollar index fell by 0.41% to 98.64, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropped 4.95 basis points to 4.420%. COMEX gold futures rose 0.98% to $3376.00 per ounce. The Shanghai gold price first rose sharply and then fell, and finally rebounded due to the Middle East situation. The premium of Shanghai gold remained around 3 yuan/gram [4]. - Silver: Affected by the same factors as gold, the silver price initially declined and then rebounded slightly. COMEX silver futures fell 0.77% to $36.36 per ounce. The Shanghai silver premium remained around 436 yuan/kg [6]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis was - 3.13, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures. The inventory of gold futures remained unchanged at 17,817 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, and the long positions of the main force increased [5]. - Silver: The basis was - 14, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 36,100 kilograms to 1,229,816 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, and the long positions of the main force increased [6]. 3.3. Today's Focus - Economic data to be released include the US May PPI, UK April GDP. There will also be intensive speeches by ECB members and a 2026 fiscal year budget hearing in the US Senate Finance Committee. Trump's "weakening confidence" in the Iran nuclear negotiations and the reduction of the US embassy scale in Iraq have further intensified the tense situation in the Middle East [4]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The fundamental situation was neutral. The basis was neutral, the inventory was bearish, the technical chart was bullish, and the main position was bullish [4][5]. - Silver: The fundamental situation was neutral. The basis was neutral, the inventory change was neutral, the technical chart was bullish, and the main position was bullish [6]. 3.5. Position Data - Gold: The net long position of the main force increased. The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold increased by 0.98%, the short positions increased by 1.20%, and the net position increased by 0.85% [5][29]. - Silver: The net long position of the main force decreased slightly. The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 0.69%, the short positions decreased by 0.84%, and the net position decreased by 0.19% [32]. - ETF Positions: The SPDR gold ETF position showed an oscillating increase, and the silver ETF position also increased oscillatingly and was higher than the same period in the previous two years [34][37]. - Warehouse Receipts: The gold futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged. The COMEX gold warehouse receipts decreased slightly but were still at a high level. The Shanghai silver warehouse receipts continued to increase and were higher than the same period last year, while the COMEX silver warehouse receipts increased slightly [5][39][41].